RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
The Footlab model makes RB Leipzig the favourite at 43%, against 22% for a draw and 35% for FSV Mainz 05. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate RB Leipzig (2,211) and FSV Mainz 05 (2,158).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, RB Leipzig have 10 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 9, 2 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Eintracht Trier(away) | 6-0 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Leeds(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Verl(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Ingolstadt 04(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Krieschow(away) | 9-0 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 RB Leipzig win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 FSV Mainz 05 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | RB Leipzig 1-2 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 13, 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 0-1 RB Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| Mar 1, 2025 | RB Leipzig 1-2 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Oct 19, 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 0-2 RB Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| Mar 30, 2024 | RB Leipzig 0-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Nov 4, 2023 | FSV Mainz 05 2-0 RB Leipzig | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
RB Leipzig score 2.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig | 2.2 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
| FSV Mainz 05 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 6 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
RB Leipzig sit 3rd in Bundesliga (65 points from 34 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th (40 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 66 | 47 | 65 |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 44 | 53 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05?
- The Footlab model makes RB Leipzig the favourite at 43%, against 22% for a draw and 35% for FSV Mainz 05.
- Where and when is RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
- RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Red Bull Arena, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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