Match

RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

RB LeipzigFSV Mainz 05

The Footlab AI model makes RB Leipzig the favourite at 41%, against 22% for a draw and 37% for FSV Mainz 05. The most likely score is 1-1. If RB Leipzig wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,461 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05?

A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate RB Leipzig (2,218) and FSV Mainz 05 (2,165).

41%22%37%
RB Leipzig winDrawFSV Mainz 05 win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

RB Leipzig

4-2-3-1
  1. 40Rômulo
  1. 7A. Nusa
  2. 6E. Banzuzi
  3. 21N. El Aynaoui
  4. 28C. Nkunku
  5. 10B. Gruda
  1. 4W. Orbán
  2. 22D. Raum
  3. 17R. Baku
  4. 23C. Lukeba
  1. 26M. Vandevoordt

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2
  1. 23S. Becker
  2. 9P. Tietz
  1. 10N. Amiri
  2. 19A. Caci
  3. 6K. Sano
  4. 2P. Mwene
  5. 7Lee Jae-Sung
  1. 3F. Gruber
  2. 48K. Potulski
  3. 4S. Posch
  1. 1A. Schwolow

Computed on October 16, 2026 at 06:47 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, RB Leipzig have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; FSV Mainz 05 have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

RB Leipzig
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 13, 2026PSV Eindhoven(home)1-0UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)6-0Bundesliga
Sep 20, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(away)0-2Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2026Hamburger SV(home)5-0Bundesliga
Sep 10, 2026Como(away)1-4UEFA Champions League
FSV Mainz 05
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(home)3-4Bundesliga
Oct 3, 2026Waldhof Mannheim(away)3-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach(away)4-3Bundesliga
Sep 12, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)1-3Bundesliga
Sep 6, 2026Hamburger SV(away)5-0Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 RB Leipzig wins, 1 draw, 3 FSV Mainz 05 wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 31, 2026RB Leipzig 1-2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2025FSV Mainz 05 0-1 RB LeipzigBundesliga
Mar 1, 2025RB Leipzig 1-2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Oct 19, 2024FSV Mainz 05 0-2 RB LeipzigBundesliga
Mar 30, 2024RB Leipzig 0-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Nov 4, 2023FSV Mainz 05 2-0 RB LeipzigBundesliga

Last archived meeting: RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 on Jan 31, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

RB Leipzig score 2.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; FSV Mainz 05 score 3.6 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
RB Leipzig2.21.576/1511/15
FSV Mainz 053.61.096/1512/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

RB Leipzig sit 5th in Bundesliga (9 points from 5 matches) and FSV Mainz 05 sit 8th (7 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
5RB Leipzig53021559
8FSV Mainz 05521213107

A question about RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05?
The Footlab AI model makes RB Leipzig the favourite at 41%, against 22% for a draw and 37% for FSV Mainz 05.
Where and when is RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 played?
RB Leipzig vs FSV Mainz 05 is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Red Bull Arena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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