Where and when is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln played?

Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SV

1. FC Köln

The Footlab model makes 1. FC Köln the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?

A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Hamburger SV (2,043) and 1. FC Köln (2,023).

Hamburger SV win36 %

Draw24 %

1. FC Köln win41 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hamburger SV have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; 1. FC Köln have 3, 7 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hamburger SV
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Toulouse(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Lille(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Everton(home)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Rapid Vienna(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
May 16, 2026	Bayer Leverkusen(away)	1-1	Bundesliga

1. FC Köln
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Real Sociedad(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Hertha BSC(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 23, 2026	Bergisch Gladbach(away)	8-0	Friendlies Clubs
May 16, 2026	Bayern München(away)	1-5	Bundesliga
May 10, 2026	1. FC Heidenheim(home)	1-3	Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Hamburger SV win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 1. FC Köln win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 14, 2026	Hamburger SV 1-1 1. FC Köln	Bundesliga
Nov 2, 2025	1. FC Köln 4-1 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Jan 18, 2025	Hamburger SV 1-0 1. FC Köln	2. Bundesliga
Aug 2, 2024	1. FC Köln 1-2 Hamburger SV	2. Bundesliga
Jan 7, 2023	1. FC Köln 4-0 Hamburger SV	Friendlies Clubs
Jan 18, 2022	1. FC Köln 1-1 Hamburger SV	DFB Pokal

Last archived meeting: Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln on Mar 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Hamburger SV score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; 1. FC Köln score 2.0 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV	1.4	1.9	0	13/15	11/15
1. FC Köln	2.0	1.9	1	13/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Hamburger SV sit 13th in Bundesliga (38 points from 34 matches) and 1. FC Köln sit 14th (32 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	38
14	1. FC Köln	34	7	11	16	49	63	32

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln?: The Footlab model makes 1. FC Köln the favourite at 41%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln played?: Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Köln is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.