Where and when is Bayern München vs Union Berlin played?

Bayern München vs Union Berlin is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Allianz Arena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 85% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bayern München vs Union Berlin: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Allianz Arena, München

Bayern München

Union Berlin

The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 80%, against 12% for a draw and 8% for Union Berlin. The most likely score is 3-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayern München vs Union Berlin?

Bayern München is a heavy favourite: 2,516 Elo points against 2,014 — a 502-point gap.

Bayern München win80 %

Draw12 %

Union Berlin win8 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayern München have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Union Berlin have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayern München
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 18, 2026	1. FC Heidenheim(away)	4-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	RB Leipzig(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 7, 2026	Aston Villa(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 4, 2026	Jeju United FC(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	SV Wehen(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs

Union Berlin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Ipswich(home)	2-4	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Aris(home)	3-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 2, 2026	Cagliari(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Dynamo Dresden(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	FC Aarau(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bayern München win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Union Berlin win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 21, 2026	Bayern München 4-0 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Dec 3, 2025	Union Berlin 2-3 Bayern München	DFB Pokal
Nov 8, 2025	Union Berlin 2-2 Bayern München	Bundesliga
Mar 15, 2025	Union Berlin 1-1 Bayern München	Bundesliga
Nov 2, 2024	Bayern München 3-0 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Apr 20, 2024	Union Berlin 1-5 Bayern München	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayern München vs Union Berlin on Mar 21, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayern München score 2.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Union Berlin score 2.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 85% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bayern München	2.9	1.7	3	12/15	12/15
Union Berlin	2.3	1.9	1	13/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayern München sit 1st in Bundesliga (89 points from 34 matches) and Union Berlin sit 11th (39 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern München	34	28	5	1	122	36	89
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	44	58	39

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayern München vs Union Berlin?: The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 80%, against 12% for a draw and 8% for Union Berlin.
Where and when is Bayern München vs Union Berlin played?: Bayern München vs Union Berlin is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Allianz Arena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 85% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.