Where and when is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund played?

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MHPArena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)MHPArena, Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart

Borussia Dortmund

The Footlab model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Borussia Dortmund. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?

A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate VfB Stuttgart (2,238) and Borussia Dortmund (2,293).

VfB Stuttgart win46 %

Draw23 %

Borussia Dortmund win31 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, VfB Stuttgart have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Borussia Dortmund have 9, 1 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

VfB Stuttgart
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Hansa Rostock(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Fulham(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Everton(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Paris FC(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Kickers Offenbach(away)	8-1	Friendlies Clubs

Borussia Dortmund
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	AS Roma(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Arsenal(away)	3-2	Emirates Cup
Aug 1, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Fortuna Düsseldorf(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 VfB Stuttgart win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Borussia Dortmund win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 4, 2026	VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Nov 22, 2025	Borussia Dortmund 3-3 VfB Stuttgart	Bundesliga
Feb 8, 2025	Borussia Dortmund 1-2 VfB Stuttgart	Bundesliga
Sep 22, 2024	VfB Stuttgart 5-1 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Apr 6, 2024	Borussia Dortmund 0-1 VfB Stuttgart	Bundesliga
Dec 6, 2023	VfB Stuttgart 2-0 Borussia Dortmund	DFB Pokal

Last archived meeting: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund on Apr 4, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

VfB Stuttgart score 3.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Borussia Dortmund score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
VfB Stuttgart	3.1	1.3	4	9/15	13/15
Borussia Dortmund	1.8	1.1	5	7/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

VfB Stuttgart sit 4th in Bundesliga (62 points from 34 matches) and Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd (73 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70	34	73
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	18	8	8	71	49	62

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund?: The Footlab model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 46%, against 23% for a draw and 31% for Borussia Dortmund.
Where and when is VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund played?: VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund is played on September 19, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MHPArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.