Where and when is Bayern München vs SC Paderborn 07 played?

Bayern München vs SC Paderborn 07 is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Allianz Arena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bayern München vs SC Paderborn 07: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Allianz Arena, München

Bayern München

SC Paderborn 07

The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 75%, against 15% for a draw and 10% for SC Paderborn 07. The most likely score is 2-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayern München vs SC Paderborn 07?

Bayern München is a heavy favourite: 2,527 Elo points against 2,092 — a 435-point gap.

Bayern München win75 %

Draw15 %

SC Paderborn 07 win10 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayern München have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; SC Paderborn 07 have 7, 6 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayern München
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Borussia Dortmund(away)	2-1	Super Cup
Aug 18, 2026	1. FC Heidenheim(away)	4-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	RB Leipzig(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 7, 2026	Aston Villa(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 4, 2026	Jeju United FC(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs

SC Paderborn 07
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Phönix Lübeck(away)	4-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 8, 2026	Werder Bremen(away)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	VfL Osnabrück(away)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs
May 25, 2026	VfL Wolfsburg(home)	2-1	Bundesliga
May 21, 2026	VfL Wolfsburg(away)	0-0	Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 5 Bayern München win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 SC Paderborn 07 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 21, 2020	Bayern München 3-2 SC Paderborn 07	Bundesliga
Sep 28, 2019	SC Paderborn 07 2-3 Bayern München	Bundesliga
Feb 6, 2018	SC Paderborn 07 0-6 Bayern München	DFB Pokal
Feb 21, 2015	SC Paderborn 07 0-6 Bayern München	Bundesliga
Sep 23, 2014	Bayern München 4-0 SC Paderborn 07	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayern München vs SC Paderborn 07 on Feb 21, 2020

How many goals should we expect?

Bayern München score 2.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; SC Paderborn 07 score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bayern München	2.7	1.5	3	12/15	12/15
SC Paderborn 07	1.9	1.5	4	11/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bayern München	34	28	5	1	122	36	89

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayern München vs SC Paderborn 07?: The Footlab model makes Bayern München the favourite at 75%, against 15% for a draw and 10% for SC Paderborn 07.
Where and when is Bayern München vs SC Paderborn 07 played?: Bayern München vs SC Paderborn 07 is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Allianz Arena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.