Where and when is FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund played?

FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Arena AufSchalke, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Arena AufSchalke, Gelsenkirchen

FC Schalke 04

Borussia Dortmund

The Footlab model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for FC Schalke 04. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund?

Borussia Dortmund starts as the favourite with a 229-point Elo edge (2,290 vs 2,061).

FC Schalke 04 win24 %

Draw23 %

Borussia Dortmund win53 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Schalke 04 have 11 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Borussia Dortmund have 8, 1 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC Schalke 04
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Hallescher FC(away)	5-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 16, 2026	Real Madrid(home)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Atalanta(home)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Hessen Kassel(away)	5-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs

Borussia Dortmund
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Bayern München(home)	1-2	Super Cup
Aug 15, 2026	AS Roma(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Arsenal(away)	3-2	Emirates Cup
Aug 1, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 FC Schalke 04 win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Borussia Dortmund win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 11, 2023	FC Schalke 04 2-2 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Sep 17, 2022	Borussia Dortmund 1-0 FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga
Feb 20, 2021	FC Schalke 04 0-4 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Oct 24, 2020	Borussia Dortmund 3-0 FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga
May 16, 2020	Borussia Dortmund 4-0 FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga
Oct 26, 2019	FC Schalke 04 0-0 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund on Mar 11, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

FC Schalke 04 score 2.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Borussia Dortmund score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FC Schalke 04	2.1	1.3	5	7/15	11/15
Borussia Dortmund	1.7	1.2	4	8/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70	34	73

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund?: The Footlab model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for FC Schalke 04.
Where and when is FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund played?: FC Schalke 04 vs Borussia Dortmund is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Arena AufSchalke, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.