SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg im Breisgau
The Footlab model makes SC Freiburg the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for 1899 Hoffenheim. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate SC Freiburg (2,195) and 1899 Hoffenheim (2,163).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, SC Freiburg have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; 1899 Hoffenheim have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortuna Düsseldorf(away) | 5-1 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Motherwell(away) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Derby(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Erzgebirge Aue(away) | 4-0 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Karlsruher SC(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Holstein Kiel(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | SGV Freiberg(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 SC Freiburg win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 1899 Hoffenheim win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | 1899 Hoffenheim 3-0 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| Sep 28, 2025 | SC Freiburg 1-1 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | SC Freiburg 3-2 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1-1 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SC Freiburg 3-2 1899 Hoffenheim | Bundesliga |
| Aug 19, 2023 | 1899 Hoffenheim 1-2 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: 1899 Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg on Feb 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
SC Freiburg score 2.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; 1899 Hoffenheim score 1.9 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| 1899 Hoffenheim | 1.9 | 1.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
SC Freiburg sit 7th in Bundesliga (47 points from 34 matches) and 1899 Hoffenheim sit 5th (61 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 65 | 52 | 61 |
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 51 | 57 | 47 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
- The Footlab model makes SC Freiburg the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for 1899 Hoffenheim.
- Where and when is SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim played?
- SC Freiburg vs 1899 Hoffenheim is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Europa-Park Stadion, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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