Bembibre vs Arandina: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 7Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1, Bembibre
The Footlab AI model makes Bembibre the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Arandina. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bembibre wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bembibre vs Arandina?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Bembibre (1,644) and Arandina (1,655).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bembibre vs Arandina
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bembibre
Not enough data to predict the Bembibre lineup.
Arandina
Not enough data to predict the Arandina lineup.
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:13 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bembibre have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Arandina have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Unionistas II(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | La Virgen del Camino(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Guijuelo(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atlético Mansillés(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Mirandés II(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Cristo Atlético(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Turégano(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Calasanz de Soria(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Salamanca II(away) | 4-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Almazán(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Bembibre win, 2 draws, 3 Arandina wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Arandina 3-3 Bembibre | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Bembibre 1-1 Arandina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Bembibre 1-0 Arandina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Arandina 2-0 Bembibre | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Mar 5, 2023 | Bembibre 1-2 Arandina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 30, 2022 | Arandina 2-0 Bembibre | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
How many goals should we expect?
Bembibre score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Arandina score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bembibre | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Arandina | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bembibre sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (13 points from 6 matches) and Arandina sit 8th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Bembibre | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 13 |
| 8 | Arandina | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
A question about Bembibre vs Arandina?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bembibre vs Arandina?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bembibre the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Arandina.
- Where and when is Bembibre vs Arandina played?
- Bembibre vs Arandina is played on October 17, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal Jesús Esteban Rodríguez 1, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Atlético MansillésvsUnionistas II
- Oct 17, 2026TuréganovsColegios Diocesanos
- Oct 17, 2026Calasanz de SoriavsPalencia CF
- Oct 17, 2026Salamanca IIvsCultural Leonesa II
- Oct 18, 2026AlmazánvsBurgos Promesas
- Oct 18, 2026Mirandés IIvsUD Santa Marta
- Oct 18, 2026Cristo AtléticovsVillaralbo
- Oct 18, 2026GuijuelovsLa Virgen del Camino