Birmingham vs Brentford: prediction and stats
League CupRound of 64Kick-off on August 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)St Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
The Footlab model makes Brentford the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Birmingham. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Birmingham vs Brentford?
Brentford starts as the favourite with a 247-point Elo edge (2,166 vs 1,919).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Birmingham have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Brentford have 4, 8 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sheffield Utd(away) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Swansea(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Burton Albion(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(home) | 7-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| May 17, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| May 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Birmingham win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Brentford win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2021 | Brentford 0-0 Birmingham | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2020 | Birmingham 1-0 Brentford | Championship |
| Feb 15, 2020 | Birmingham 1-1 Brentford | Championship |
| Aug 3, 2019 | Brentford 0-1 Birmingham | Championship |
| Dec 29, 2018 | Birmingham 0-0 Brentford | Championship |
| Oct 2, 2018 | Brentford 1-1 Birmingham | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Brentford vs Birmingham on Apr 6, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Birmingham score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Brentford score 1.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1.3 | 0.9 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Brentford | 1.9 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Birmingham vs Brentford?
- The Footlab model makes Brentford the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Birmingham.
- Where and when is Birmingham vs Brentford played?
- Birmingham vs Brentford is played on August 25, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at St Andrew's Stadium, in the League Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.