Where and when is Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Motherwell U21 played?

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Motherwell U21 is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ferguson Park, in the Challenge Cup.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Motherwell U21: prediction and stats

Challenge CupGroup Stage - 5Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ferguson Park, Rosewell

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic

Motherwell U21

The Footlab model makes Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic the favourite at 79%, against 13% for a draw and 8% for Motherwell U21. The most likely score is 3-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Motherwell U21?

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic is a heavy favourite: 1,694 Elo points against 1,366, a 328-point gap.

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic win79 %

Draw13 %

Motherwell U21 win8 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Motherwell U21 have 1, 3 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Berwick Rangers(away)	2-0	Football League - Lowland League
Aug 11, 2026	Annan Athletic(home)	1-0	Challenge Cup
Aug 8, 2026	East Stirlingshire(home)	4-1	Football League - Lowland League
Aug 1, 2026	Brechin(home)	1-2	Football League - Lowland League
Jul 28, 2026	Bo'ness United(away)	4-0	Football League - Lowland League

Motherwell U21
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 11, 2026	Kelty Hearts(away)	3-4	Challenge Cup
Nov 11, 2025	Queen of the South(away)	1-3	Challenge Cup
Oct 11, 2025	Stenhousemuir(away)	0-4	Challenge Cup
Sep 23, 2025	Stranraer(away)	0-3	Challenge Cup
Sep 6, 2025	Clyde(away)	0-4	Challenge Cup

How many goals should we expect?

Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic score 2.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Motherwell U21 score 0.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 79% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic	2.4	1.4	6	9/15	12/15
Motherwell U21	0.5	2.3	4	4/13	9/13

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Motherwell U21?: The Footlab model makes Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic the favourite at 79%, against 13% for a draw and 8% for Motherwell U21.
Where and when is Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Motherwell U21 played?: Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic vs Motherwell U21 is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ferguson Park, in the Challenge Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 79% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.