Where and when is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 played?

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

SC Paderborn 07

The Footlab model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for SC Paderborn 07. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?

Borussia Dortmund starts as the favourite with a 219-point Elo edge (2,288 vs 2,070).

Borussia Dortmund win63 %

Draw20 %

SC Paderborn 07 win17 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Borussia Dortmund have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; SC Paderborn 07 have 7, 6 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Borussia Dortmund
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	AS Roma(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Arsenal(away)	3-2	Emirates Cup
Aug 1, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Fortuna Düsseldorf(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs

SC Paderborn 07
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Werder Bremen(away)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	VfL Osnabrück(away)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs
May 25, 2026	VfL Wolfsburg(home)	2-1	Bundesliga
May 21, 2026	VfL Wolfsburg(away)	0-0	Bundesliga
May 17, 2026	SV Darmstadt 98(away)	2-0	2. Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Borussia Dortmund win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 SC Paderborn 07 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 2, 2021	Borussia Dortmund 3-2 SC Paderborn 07	DFB Pokal
Aug 28, 2020	Borussia Dortmund 1-1 SC Paderborn 07	Friendlies Clubs
May 31, 2020	SC Paderborn 07 1-6 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Nov 22, 2019	Borussia Dortmund 3-3 SC Paderborn 07	Bundesliga
Oct 28, 2015	Borussia Dortmund 7-1 SC Paderborn 07	DFB Pokal
Apr 18, 2015	Borussia Dortmund 3-0 SC Paderborn 07	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 on Feb 2, 2021

How many goals should we expect?

Borussia Dortmund score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; SC Paderborn 07 score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Borussia Dortmund	1.8	1.1	5	7/15	8/15
SC Paderborn 07	1.8	1.5	4	11/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70	34	73

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07?: The Footlab model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for SC Paderborn 07.
Where and when is Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 played?: Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 07 is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.