Where and when is RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV played?

RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Red Bull Arena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

RB Leipzig

Hamburger SV

The Footlab model makes RB Leipzig the favourite at 67%, against 18% for a draw and 15% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?

RB Leipzig starts as the favourite with a 155-point Elo edge (2,204 vs 2,049).

RB Leipzig win67 %

Draw18 %

Hamburger SV win15 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, RB Leipzig have 10 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats; Hamburger SV have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

RB Leipzig
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Eintracht Trier(away)	6-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Bayern München(away)	1-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Leeds(away)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Verl(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	FC Ingolstadt 04(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

Hamburger SV
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Toulouse(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Lille(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Everton(home)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Rapid Vienna(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
May 16, 2026	Bayer Leverkusen(away)	1-1	Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 RB Leipzig win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Hamburger SV win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 1, 2026	Hamburger SV 1-2 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga
Oct 18, 2025	RB Leipzig 2-1 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Oct 18, 2022	RB Leipzig 4-0 Hamburger SV	DFB Pokal
Apr 23, 2019	Hamburger SV 1-3 RB Leipzig	DFB Pokal
Jan 27, 2018	RB Leipzig 1-1 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Sep 8, 2017	Hamburger SV 0-2 RB Leipzig	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Hamburger SV vs RB Leipzig on Mar 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

RB Leipzig score 2.2 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Hamburger SV score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
RB Leipzig	2.2	1.4	5	9/15	12/15
Hamburger SV	1.4	1.9	0	13/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

RB Leipzig sit 3rd in Bundesliga (65 points from 34 matches) and Hamburger SV sit 13th (38 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	RB Leipzig	34	20	5	9	66	47	65
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?: The Footlab model makes RB Leipzig the favourite at 67%, against 18% for a draw and 15% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV played?: RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Red Bull Arena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.