Botswana vs Uganda: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Francistown Stadium, Francistown
The Footlab model makes Uganda the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Botswana. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botswana vs Uganda?
Uganda starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,560 vs 1,428).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botswana have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Uganda have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Zimbabwe(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Congo DR(home) | 0-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Benin(away) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Senegal(away) | 0-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2025 | Nigeria(home) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 27, 2025 | Tanzania(home) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Tunisia(away) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Morocco(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Chad(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Botswana win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Uganda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | Botswana 0-1 Uganda | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Jun 7, 2024 | Uganda 1-0 Botswana | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
How many goals should we expect?
Botswana score 0.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Uganda score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botswana | 0.8 | 1.7 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Uganda | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botswana sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (8 points from 6 matches) and Uganda sit 2nd (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Uganda | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 13 |
| 2 | Botswana | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botswana vs Uganda?
- The Footlab model makes Uganda the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 32% for Botswana.
- Where and when is Botswana vs Uganda played?
- Botswana vs Uganda is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Francistown Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.