Botswana vs Uganda: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Francistown Stadium, Francistown
The Footlab AI model makes Uganda the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Botswana. The most likely score is 1-1. If Uganda wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botswana vs Uganda?
Uganda starts as the favourite with a 137-point Elo edge (1,582 vs 1,445).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Botswana vs Uganda
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Botswana
4-3-3- 11T. Orebonye
- 10T. Setsile
- 9T. Kgamanyane
- 6G. Mohutsiwa
- 14Godiraone Modingwane
- 8Olebogeng Ramotse
- 20T. Kopelang
- 4Moshe Gaolaolwe
- 5A. Velaphi
- 21Benson Kitso Mangolo
- 23G. Phoko
Uganda
3-4-3- 9A. Vula
- 14K. Boateng
- 7R. Mato
- 4K. Semakula
- 22B. Alhassan
- 15A. Sissako
- 23A. Kayondo
- 5T. Sibbick
- 3R. Torach
- 21S. Diaby
- 18D. Onyango
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 05:03 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botswana have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Uganda have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2026 | Tunisia(away) | 2-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Libya(away) | 2-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Malawi(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Zimbabwe(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Congo DR(home) | 0-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Congo DR(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Congo DR(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Libya(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Tunisia(away) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Nigeria(home) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Botswana wins, 0 draws, 2 Uganda wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2025 | Botswana 0-1 Uganda | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Jun 7, 2024 | Uganda 1-0 Botswana | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
How many goals should we expect?
Botswana score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Uganda score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botswana | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Uganda | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botswana sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (2 points from 2 matches) and Uganda sit 1st (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uganda | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 2 | Botswana | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
A question about Botswana vs Uganda?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botswana vs Uganda?
- The Footlab AI model makes Uganda the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Botswana.
- Where and when is Botswana vs Uganda played?
- Botswana vs Uganda is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Francistown Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.