Caerphilly Athletic vs Treowen Stars: prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 23Kick-off on February 12, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Caerphilly Athletic the favourite at 42%, against 22% for a draw and 36% for Treowen Stars. The most likely score is 1-1. If Caerphilly Athletic wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 2,974 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Caerphilly Athletic vs Treowen Stars?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Caerphilly Athletic (1,565) and Treowen Stars (1,581).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Caerphilly Athletic vs Treowen Stars
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Caerphilly Athletic
Not enough data to predict the Caerphilly Athletic lineup.
Treowen Stars
Not enough data to predict the Treowen Stars lineup.
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 08:54 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Caerphilly Athletic have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Treowen Stars have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Chepstow Town(home) | 1-0 | Welsh Cup |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Newport City(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Swansea University(away) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Pontypridd Town(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(home) | 2-3 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Trethomas Bluebirds(home) | 1-3 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Pontardawe Town(away) | 1-6 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Llantwit Major(home) | 1-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | llanelli AFC(away) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Caerphilly Athletic wins, 0 draws, 1 Treowen Stars win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Treowen Stars 3-0 Caerphilly Athletic | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Treowen Stars vs Caerphilly Athletic on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Caerphilly Athletic score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Treowen Stars score 1.8 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caerphilly Athletic | 1.4 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Treowen Stars | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Caerphilly Athletic sit 11th in FAW Championship (11 points from 10 matches) and Treowen Stars sit 9th (13 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Treowen Stars | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 13 |
| 11 | Caerphilly Athletic | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 19 | 11 |
A question about Caerphilly Athletic vs Treowen Stars?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Caerphilly Athletic vs Treowen Stars?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerphilly Athletic the favourite at 42%, against 22% for a draw and 36% for Treowen Stars.
- Where and when is Caerphilly Athletic vs Treowen Stars played?
- Caerphilly Athletic vs Treowen Stars is played on February 12, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC), in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Feb 12, 2027Swansea UniversityvsLlantwit Major
- Feb 12, 2027Afan LidovsTrethomas Bluebirds
- Feb 12, 2027llanelli AFCvsPontypridd Town
- Feb 12, 2027Caerau (Ely)vsBaglan Dragons
- Feb 13, 2027Newport CityvsAberystwyth Town
- Feb 13, 2027Carmarthen TownvsCardiff Draconians
- Feb 13, 2027Ynyshir AlbionsvsPontardawe Town