Match

Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Yodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka

Cerezo OsakaMachida Zelvia

The Footlab AI model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Cerezo Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1. If Machida Zelvia wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,601 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia?

Machida Zelvia starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (2,166 vs 2,040).

24%25%51%
Cerezo Osaka winDrawMachida Zelvia win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Cerezo Osaka

3-4-2-1
  1. 19P. Sabbag
  1. 77Lucas Fernandes
  2. 10S. Tanaka
  3. 41Y. Komi
  4. 16H. Okuda
  5. 66A. Ohata
  6. 8S. Kagawa
  1. 97T. Takahashi
  2. 27Dion-Johan Cools
  3. 4R. Inoue
  1. 23Kosuke Nakamura

Machida Zelvia

3-4-2-1
  1. 9Koki Ogawa
  1. 6H. Mochizuki
  2. 20T. Nishimura
  3. 16H. Mae
  4. 7Y. Soma
  5. 33T. Akimoto
  6. 31N. Lavi
  1. 3G. Shōji
  2. 2T. Ouwejan
  3. 24Kim Min-Tae
  1. 1K. Tani

Computed on November 5, 2026 at 10:49 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cerezo Osaka have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Machida Zelvia have 10, 4 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Cerezo Osaka
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026Kashima(away)1-4J1 League
Oct 28, 2026Mito Hollyhock(away)3-1J-League Cup
Oct 25, 2026JEF United Chiba(home)2-2J1 League
Oct 21, 2026Nagoya Grampus(away)1-1J1 League
Oct 17, 2026Kawasaki Frontale(home)2-4J1 League
Machida Zelvia
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 5, 2026Shanghai Shenhua(home)2-1AFC Champions League Two
Nov 1, 2026Gamba Osaka(home)0-0J1 League
Oct 29, 2026Shanghai Shenhua(away)1-0AFC Champions League Two
Oct 24, 2026Vissel Kobe(away)0-0J1 League
Oct 21, 2026Shimizu S-pulse(away)5-0J1 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Cerezo Osaka wins, 2 draws, 4 Machida Zelvia wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 16, 2025Machida Zelvia 3-0 Cerezo OsakaJ1 League
Apr 29, 2025Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Machida ZelviaJ1 League
Aug 7, 2024Cerezo Osaka 0-0 Machida ZelviaJ1 League
Jun 9, 2024Machida Zelvia 2-2 Cerezo OsakaJ-League Cup
Jun 5, 2024Cerezo Osaka 1-3 Machida ZelviaJ-League Cup
May 15, 2024Machida Zelvia 2-1 Cerezo OsakaJ1 League

Last archived meeting: Machida Zelvia vs Cerezo Osaka on Aug 16, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Cerezo Osaka score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Machida Zelvia score 1.7 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Cerezo Osaka1.51.6410/158/15
Machida Zelvia1.70.696/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Cerezo Osaka sit 12th in J1 League (14 points from 13 matches) and Machida Zelvia sit 3rd (28 points from 13 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Machida Zelvia13841301028
12Cerezo Osaka13355132314

A question about Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia?
The Footlab AI model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Cerezo Osaka.
Where and when is Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia played?
Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia is played on December 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Yodoko Sakura Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Cerezo Osaka and Machida Zelvia

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