Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Yodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Cerezo Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Cerezo Osaka (2,017) and Machida Zelvia (2,114).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cerezo Osaka have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Machida Zelvia have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Tochigi City(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Cerezo Osaka win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Machida Zelvia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 3-0 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Apr 29, 2025 | Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2024 | Cerezo Osaka 0-0 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Jun 9, 2024 | Machida Zelvia 2-2 Cerezo Osaka | J-League Cup |
| Jun 5, 2024 | Cerezo Osaka 1-3 Machida Zelvia | J-League Cup |
| May 15, 2024 | Machida Zelvia 2-1 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Machida Zelvia vs Cerezo Osaka on Aug 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Cerezo Osaka score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Machida Zelvia score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Machida Zelvia | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cerezo Osaka sit 6th in J1 League (6 points from 3 matches) and Machida Zelvia sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia?
- The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Cerezo Osaka.
- Where and when is Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia played?
- Cerezo Osaka vs Machida Zelvia is played on December 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Yodoko Sakura Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 12, 2026Sanfrecce HiroshimavsKashima
- Dec 12, 2026Shimizu S-pulsevsVissel Kobe
- Dec 12, 2026UrawavsKawasaki Frontale
- Dec 12, 2026Nagoya GrampusvsMito Hollyhock
- Dec 12, 2026Gamba OsakavsTokyo Verdy
- Dec 12, 2026Yokohama F. MarinosvsV-varen Nagasaki
- Dec 12, 2026Kyoto SangavsJEF United Chiba
- Dec 12, 2026Fagiano OkayamavsKashiwa Reysol