Match

Kashima vs Machida Zelvia: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 16, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Kashima Soccer Stadium, Kashima

KashimaMachida Zelvia

The Footlab AI model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Kashima. The most likely score is 1-1. If Machida Zelvia wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,428 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Kashima vs Machida Zelvia?

A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Kashima (2,165) and Machida Zelvia (2,172).

31%27%42%
Kashima winDrawMachida Zelvia win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Kashima vs Machida Zelvia

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Kashima

4-4-2
  1. 40Y. Suzuki
  2. 9Léo Ceará
  1. 27Y. Matsumura
  2. 6K. Misao
  3. 10G. Shibasaki
  4. 24H. Hayashu
  1. 55N. Ueda
  2. 23K. Tsukui
  3. 7R. Ogawa
  4. 3Kim Tae-Hyeon
  1. 1T. Hayakawa

Machida Zelvia

3-4-2-1
  1. 99T. Yengi
  1. 9Koki Ogawa
  2. 16H. Mae
  3. 7Y. Soma
  4. 33T. Akimoto
  5. 6H. Mochizuki
  6. 31N. Lavi
  1. 50D. Okamura
  2. 3G. Shōji
  3. 2T. Ouwejan
  1. 1K. Tani

Computed on October 25, 2026 at 02:32 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kashima have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Machida Zelvia have 10, 4 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Kashima
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 24, 2026Kashiwa Reysol(home)2-3J1 League
Oct 21, 2026Kyoto Sanga(away)2-2J1 League
Oct 17, 2026V-varen Nagasaki(home)2-0J1 League
Oct 13, 2026Công An Nhân Dân(away)1-0AFC Champions League Elite
Oct 9, 2026Gamba Osaka(home)2-0J1 League
Machida Zelvia
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 24, 2026Vissel Kobe(away)0-0J1 League
Oct 21, 2026Shimizu S-pulse(away)5-0J1 League
Oct 18, 2026Avispa Fukuoka(home)3-0J1 League
Oct 15, 2026Tampines Rovers(away)1-0AFC Champions League Two
Oct 10, 2026Kyoto Sanga(away)1-0J1 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Kashima wins, 1 draw, 2 Machida Zelvia wins.

DateScoreCompetition
May 3, 2026Kashima 1-1 Machida ZelviaJ1 League
Mar 18, 2026Machida Zelvia 0-3 KashimaJ1 League
Aug 27, 2025Machida Zelvia 3-0 KashimaEmperor Cup
Jun 21, 2025Machida Zelvia 2-1 KashimaJ1 League
May 3, 2025Kashima 1-0 Machida ZelviaJ1 League
Dec 8, 2024Kashima 3-1 Machida ZelviaJ1 League

Last archived meeting: Kashima vs Machida Zelvia on May 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Kashima score 2.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Machida Zelvia score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Kashima2.31.359/1510/15
Machida Zelvia1.90.787/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Kashima sit 8th in J1 League (20 points from 12 matches) and Machida Zelvia sit 1st (27 points from 12 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Machida Zelvia12831301027
8Kashima12624252120

A question about Kashima vs Machida Zelvia?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Kashima vs Machida Zelvia?
The Footlab AI model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Kashima.
Where and when is Kashima vs Machida Zelvia played?
Kashima vs Machida Zelvia is played on December 16, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Kashima Soccer Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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