Kashima vs Machida Zelvia: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 16, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Kashima Soccer Stadium, Kashima
The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Machida Zelvia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kashima vs Machida Zelvia?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Kashima (2,160) and Machida Zelvia (2,116).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kashima have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Machida Zelvia have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(home) | 3-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 4-3 | J1 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Vegalta Sendai(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Kashima win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Machida Zelvia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Kashima 1-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Machida Zelvia 0-3 Kashima | J1 League |
| Aug 27, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 3-0 Kashima | Emperor Cup |
| Jun 21, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 2-1 Kashima | J1 League |
| May 3, 2025 | Kashima 1-0 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Kashima 3-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Kashima vs Machida Zelvia on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kashima score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Machida Zelvia score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima | 1.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Machida Zelvia | 1.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kashima sit 3rd in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Machida Zelvia sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | Kashima | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kashima vs Machida Zelvia?
- The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Machida Zelvia.
- Where and when is Kashima vs Machida Zelvia played?
- Kashima vs Machida Zelvia is played on December 16, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Kashima Soccer Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 25, 2026V-varen NagasakivsKawasaki Frontale
- Nov 25, 2026UrawavsCerezo Osaka
- Nov 25, 2026FC TokyovsSanfrecce Hiroshima
- Nov 25, 2026JEF United ChibavsNagoya Grampus
- Nov 25, 2026Mito HollyhockvsTokyo Verdy
- Nov 25, 2026Fagiano OkayamavsShimizu S-pulse
- Nov 25, 2026Avispa FukuokavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Dec 16, 2026Gamba OsakavsKashiwa Reysol