Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashima: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima
The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Kashima. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashima?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2,090) and Kashima (2,160).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Kashima have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 4-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(home) | 3-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 4-3 | J1 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Vegalta Sendai(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Kashima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2025 | Kashima 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Apr 2, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 Kashima | J1 League |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Kashima 2-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| May 15, 2024 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-3 Kashima | J1 League |
| Jul 8, 2023 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Kashima | J1 League |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Kashima 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Kashima vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima on Jun 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Kashima score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Kashima | 1.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th in J1 League (7 points from 3 matches) and Kashima sit 3rd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kashima | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 9 |
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashima?
- The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Kashima.
- Where and when is Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashima played?
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Kashima is played on December 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 12, 2026Shimizu S-pulsevsVissel Kobe
- Dec 12, 2026UrawavsKawasaki Frontale
- Dec 12, 2026Nagoya GrampusvsMito Hollyhock
- Dec 12, 2026Cerezo OsakavsMachida Zelvia
- Dec 12, 2026Gamba OsakavsTokyo Verdy
- Dec 12, 2026Yokohama F. MarinosvsV-varen Nagasaki
- Dec 12, 2026Kyoto SangavsJEF United Chiba
- Dec 12, 2026Fagiano OkayamavsKashiwa Reysol