Where and when is Yokohama F. Marinos vs V-varen Nagasaki played?

Yokohama F. Marinos vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on December 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Nissan Stadium, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Yokohama F. Marinos vs V-varen Nagasaki: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Nissan Stadium, Yokohama

Yokohama F. Marinos

V-varen Nagasaki

The Footlab model makes Yokohama F. Marinos the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for V-varen Nagasaki. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Yokohama F. Marinos vs V-varen Nagasaki?

A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Yokohama F. Marinos (1,976) and V-varen Nagasaki (1,910).

Yokohama F. Marinos win52 %

Draw25 %

V-varen Nagasaki win23 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Yokohama F. Marinos have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; V-varen Nagasaki have 6, 2 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Yokohama F. Marinos
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Fukushima United(home)	1-0	Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026	Vissel Kobe(home)	1-0	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Shimizu S-pulse(away)	1-0	J1 League
Aug 7, 2026	Kashima(home)	3-4	J1 League
Jul 19, 2026	Roasso Kumamoto(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs

V-varen Nagasaki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	3-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 21, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	2-4	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(home)	2-1	J1 League
Jul 17, 2026	Utrecht(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Yokohama F. Marinos win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 V-varen Nagasaki win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2024	V-varen Nagasaki 2-3 Yokohama F. Marinos	Emperor Cup
May 22, 2019	V-varen Nagasaki 3-1 Yokohama F. Marinos	J-League Cup
Apr 10, 2019	Yokohama F. Marinos 2-2 V-varen Nagasaki	J-League Cup
Nov 10, 2018	V-varen Nagasaki 0-1 Yokohama F. Marinos	J1 League
May 19, 2018	Yokohama F. Marinos 5-2 V-varen Nagasaki	J1 League

Last archived meeting: V-varen Nagasaki vs Yokohama F. Marinos on Aug 21, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Yokohama F. Marinos score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; V-varen Nagasaki score 1.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Yokohama F. Marinos	1.9	1.1	5	8/15	6/15
V-varen Nagasaki	1.4	1.6	2	10/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Yokohama F. Marinos sit 5th in J1 League (6 points from 3 matches) and V-varen Nagasaki sit 16th (3 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Yokohama F. Marinos	3	2	0	1	5	4	6
16	V-varen Nagasaki	3	1	0	2	4	6	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Yokohama F. Marinos vs V-varen Nagasaki?: The Footlab model makes Yokohama F. Marinos the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for V-varen Nagasaki.
Where and when is Yokohama F. Marinos vs V-varen Nagasaki played?: Yokohama F. Marinos vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on December 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Nissan Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.