Nagoya Grampus vs Mito Hollyhock: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Toyota Stadium, Toyota
The Footlab model makes Nagoya Grampus the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Mito Hollyhock. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Mito Hollyhock?
Nagoya Grampus starts as the favourite with a 122-point Elo edge (1,953 vs 1,832).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nagoya Grampus have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Mito Hollyhock have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Consadole Sapporo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(away) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kashiwa Reysol(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| May 30, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(away) | 0-1 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Nagoya Grampus win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Mito Hollyhock win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 2, 2017 | Mito Hollyhock 1-1 Nagoya Grampus | J2 League |
| Mar 18, 2017 | Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Mito Hollyhock | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Mito Hollyhock vs Nagoya Grampus on Sep 2, 2017
How many goals should we expect?
Nagoya Grampus score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mito Hollyhock score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Mito Hollyhock | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nagoya Grampus sit 13th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Mito Hollyhock sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Mito Hollyhock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nagoya Grampus vs Mito Hollyhock?
- The Footlab model makes Nagoya Grampus the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Mito Hollyhock.
- Where and when is Nagoya Grampus vs Mito Hollyhock played?
- Nagoya Grampus vs Mito Hollyhock is played on December 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Toyota Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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