Cerezo Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 24Kick-off on March 6, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Yodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka
The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Cerezo Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cerezo Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Cerezo Osaka (2,019) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2,090).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cerezo Osaka have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | FC Gifu(home) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Okinawa SV(home) | 4-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 4-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Cerezo Osaka win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| May 26, 2024 | Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cerezo Osaka score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cerezo Osaka sit 6th in J1 League (6 points from 3 matches) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cerezo Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
- The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Cerezo Osaka.
- Where and when is Cerezo Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima played?
- Cerezo Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is played on March 6, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Yodoko Sakura Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Mar 6, 2027Vissel KobevsFagiano Okayama
- Mar 6, 2027KashimavsJEF United Chiba
- Mar 6, 2027Gamba OsakavsNagoya Grampus
- Mar 6, 2027Kawasaki FrontalevsUrawa
- Mar 6, 2027Kyoto SangavsFC Tokyo
- Mar 6, 2027Machida ZelviavsShimizu S-pulse
- Mar 6, 2027Tokyo VerdyvsYokohama F. Marinos