Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Avispa Fukuoka: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 25Kick-off on March 10, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima
The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Avispa Fukuoka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Avispa Fukuoka?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (2,090 vs 1,926).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Avispa Fukuoka have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Okinawa SV(home) | 4-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 4-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 0-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 2-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Avispa Fukuoka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka 2-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Avispa Fukuoka 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Jun 8, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Avispa Fukuoka | J-League Cup |
| Jun 4, 2025 | Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J-League Cup |
| May 3, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Avispa Fukuoka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima on Apr 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Avispa Fukuoka score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th in J1 League (7 points from 3 matches) and Avispa Fukuoka sit 12th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 12 | Avispa Fukuoka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Avispa Fukuoka?
- The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Avispa Fukuoka.
- Where and when is Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Avispa Fukuoka played?
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Avispa Fukuoka is played on March 10, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 10, 2027Kashiwa ReysolvsKyoto Sanga
- Mar 10, 2027Shimizu S-pulsevsKawasaki Frontale
- Mar 10, 2027UrawavsFC Tokyo
- Mar 10, 2027Nagoya GrampusvsV-varen Nagasaki
- Mar 10, 2027Vissel KobevsGamba Osaka
- Mar 10, 2027JEF United ChibavsTokyo Verdy
- Mar 10, 2027Machida ZelviavsKashima
- Mar 10, 2027Mito HollyhockvsCerezo Osaka