Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima
The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Cerezo Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2,088) and Cerezo Osaka (2,017).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Cerezo Osaka have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 4-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Tochigi City(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Cerezo Osaka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Feb 22, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-1 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| May 26, 2024 | Cerezo Osaka 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Cerezo Osaka score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Cerezo Osaka | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th in J1 League (7 points from 3 matches) and Cerezo Osaka sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka?
- The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Cerezo Osaka.
- Where and when is Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka played?
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Cerezo Osaka is played on September 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 12, 2026Shimizu S-pulsevsAvispa Fukuoka
- Sep 12, 2026V-varen NagasakivsNagoya Grampus
- Sep 12, 2026UrawavsFagiano Okayama
- Sep 12, 2026Vissel KobevsKashima
- Sep 12, 2026Gamba OsakavsFC Tokyo
- Sep 12, 2026Kyoto SangavsKashiwa Reysol
- Sep 12, 2026Machida ZelviavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Sep 12, 2026Mito HollyhockvsKawasaki Frontale