Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 13Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra, Cutervo
The Footlab model makes Comerciantes Unidos the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Cienciano. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano?
Cienciano starts as the favourite with a 145-point Elo edge (1,744 vs 1,599).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Comerciantes Unidos have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Cienciano have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | UTC Cajamarca(away) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Grau(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cusco(home) | 3-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(away) | 2-3 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 2-2 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sport Boys(away) | 1-5 | Primera División |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Botafogo(away) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Deportivo Garcilaso(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Botafogo(home) | 6-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Comerciantes Unidos win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Cienciano win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | Cienciano 1-0 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Comerciantes Unidos 1-1 Cienciano | Primera División |
| Mar 10, 2025 | Cienciano 3-2 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| Jul 13, 2024 | Comerciantes Unidos 1-2 Cienciano | Primera División |
| Jan 28, 2024 | Cienciano 1-0 Comerciantes Unidos | Primera División |
| Sep 15, 2019 | Comerciantes Unidos 2-1 Cienciano | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Cienciano vs Comerciantes Unidos on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Comerciantes Unidos score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Cienciano score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comerciantes Unidos | 1.0 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Cienciano | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Comerciantes Unidos sit 9th in Primera División (21 points from 17 matches) and Cienciano sit 3rd (33 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 33 |
| 3 | Cienciano | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 33 |
| 6 | Cienciano | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 38 | 33 | 37 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 9 | Comerciantes Unidos | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 21 |
| 10 | Comerciantes Unidos | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | 8 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 5 |
| 11 | Comerciantes Unidos | 23 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 30 | 30 | 29 |
| 16 | Cienciano | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Cienciano | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano?
- The Footlab model makes Comerciantes Unidos the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Cienciano.
- Where and when is Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano played?
- Comerciantes Unidos vs Cienciano is played on October 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 24, 2026UTC CajamarcavsFBC Melgar
- Oct 24, 2026UniversitariovsJuan Pablo II College
- Oct 24, 2026Sport BoysvsFC Cajamarca
- Oct 24, 2026Sport HuancayovsAlianza Atletico
- Oct 24, 2026Atletico GrauvsADT
- Oct 24, 2026CuscovsSporting Cristal
- Oct 24, 2026Deportivo GarcilasovsClub Deportivo Los Chankas
- Oct 24, 2026UCV MoqueguavsAlianza Lima