Where and when is UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima played?

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima is played on October 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio 25 de Noviembre, in the Primera División.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima: prediction and stats

Primera DivisiónClausura - 13Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio 25 de Noviembre, Moquegua

UCV Moquegua

Alianza Lima

The Footlab model makes Alianza Lima the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for UCV Moquegua. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?

Alianza Lima starts as the favourite with a 212-point Elo edge (1,818 vs 1,607).

UCV Moquegua win27 %

Draw27 %

Alianza Lima win46 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UCV Moquegua have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Alianza Lima have 7, 6 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

UCV Moquegua
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Sport Huancayo(away)	2-0	Primera División
Aug 16, 2026	Sport Boys(home)	1-1	Primera División
Aug 9, 2026	Deportivo Garcilaso(away)	0-2	Primera División
Aug 2, 2026	FBC Melgar(home)	0-0	Primera División
Jul 26, 2026	UTC Cajamarca(away)	0-0	Primera División

Alianza Lima
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	FBC Melgar(away)	1-1	Primera División
Aug 16, 2026	UTC Cajamarca(home)	1-0	Primera División
Aug 9, 2026	Sport Boys(away)	1-1	Primera División
Aug 2, 2026	Alianza Atletico(home)	3-1	Primera División
Jul 26, 2026	Comerciantes Unidos(away)	2-2	Primera División

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 0 UCV Moquegua win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Alianza Lima win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Alianza Lima 2-1 UCV Moquegua	Primera División

Last archived meeting: Alianza Lima vs UCV Moquegua on May 3, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

UCV Moquegua score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Alianza Lima score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
UCV Moquegua	0.9	1.1	5	7/15	6/15
Alianza Lima	1.4	0.9	5	10/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

UCV Moquegua sit 14th in Primera División (18 points from 17 matches) and Alianza Lima sit 1st (40 points from 17 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alianza Lima	17	12	4	1	30	8	40
1	Alianza Lima	17	12	4	1	30	8	40
1	Alianza Lima	22	15	6	1	39	13	51
2	Alianza Lima	4	2	2	0	8	5	8
3	Alianza Lima	5	3	2	0	9	5	11
12	UCV Moquegua	6	1	4	1	5	5	7
13	UCV Moquegua	23	6	7	10	22	29	25
14	UCV Moquegua	17	5	3	9	17	24	18
14	UCV Moquegua	17	5	3	9	17	24	18
15	UCV Moquegua	4	0	3	1	2	4	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima?: The Footlab model makes Alianza Lima the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for UCV Moquegua.
Where and when is UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima played?: UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima is played on October 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio 25 de Noviembre, in the Primera División.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.