UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 13Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, Cajamarca
The Footlab model makes FBC Melgar the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for UTC Cajamarca. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar?
FBC Melgar starts as the favourite with a 220-point Elo edge (1,750 vs 1,530).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UTC Cajamarca have 1 wins, 7 draws and 7 defeats; FBC Melgar have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Alianza Atletico(away) | 1-1 | Copa De La Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Comerciantes Unidos(home) | 1-3 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alianza Lima(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ADT(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cusco(away) | 1-4 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(away) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 UTC Cajamarca win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 FBC Melgar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | FBC Melgar 2-0 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Jul 19, 2025 | UTC Cajamarca 1-2 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Feb 8, 2025 | FBC Melgar 3-0 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| Oct 22, 2024 | FBC Melgar 1-0 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
| May 12, 2024 | UTC Cajamarca 2-6 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2023 | FBC Melgar 1-1 UTC Cajamarca | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UTC Cajamarca score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; FBC Melgar score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTC Cajamarca | 1.0 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| FBC Melgar | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UTC Cajamarca sit 13th in Primera División (18 points from 17 matches) and FBC Melgar sit 5th (28 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 22 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 39 | 26 | 38 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 18 |
| 13 | UTC Cajamarca | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 26 | 18 |
| 17 | UTC Cajamarca | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 2 |
| 17 | UTC Cajamarca | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 2 |
| 18 | UTC Cajamarca | 23 | 4 | 8 | 11 | 25 | 38 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar?
- The Footlab model makes FBC Melgar the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for UTC Cajamarca.
- Where and when is UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar played?
- UTC Cajamarca vs FBC Melgar is played on October 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Héroes de San Ramón, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 24, 2026UniversitariovsJuan Pablo II College
- Oct 24, 2026Sport BoysvsFC Cajamarca
- Oct 24, 2026Sport HuancayovsAlianza Atletico
- Oct 24, 2026Comerciantes UnidosvsCienciano
- Oct 24, 2026Atletico GrauvsADT
- Oct 24, 2026CuscovsSporting Cristal
- Oct 24, 2026Deportivo GarcilasovsClub Deportivo Los Chankas
- Oct 24, 2026UCV MoqueguavsAlianza Lima