Cumbernauld Colts vs St. Mirren U21: prediction and stats
Challenge CupGroup Stage - 5Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Broadwood Stadium, Cumbernauld
The Footlab model makes Cumbernauld Colts the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for St. Mirren U21. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cumbernauld Colts vs St. Mirren U21?
Cumbernauld Colts starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,545 vs 1,441).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cumbernauld Colts have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; St. Mirren U21 have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dalbeattie Star(home) | 2-2 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gretna 2008(away) | 3-3 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Queen of the South(away) | 0-4 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Auchinleck Talbot(away) | 0-1 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Renfrew(home) | 2-2 | Football League - Lowland League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Clyde(away) | 4-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Stranraer(away) | 0-2 | Challenge Cup |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Kelty Hearts(away) | 1-2 | Challenge Cup |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Hamilton Academical(away) | 1-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Annan Athletic(away) | 2-2 | Challenge Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Cumbernauld Colts score 2.2 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; St. Mirren U21 score 1.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cumbernauld Colts | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| St. Mirren U21 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cumbernauld Colts vs St. Mirren U21?
- The Footlab model makes Cumbernauld Colts the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for St. Mirren U21.
- Where and when is Cumbernauld Colts vs St. Mirren U21 played?
- Cumbernauld Colts vs St. Mirren U21 is played on September 26, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Broadwood Stadium, in the Challenge Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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