FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys: prediction and stats
Primera DivisiónClausura - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín, Arequipa
The Footlab model makes FBC Melgar the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Sport Boys. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys?
FBC Melgar starts as the favourite with a 115-point Elo edge (1,751 vs 1,636).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FBC Melgar have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Sport Boys have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Club Deportivo Los Chankas(away) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Cajamarca(home) | 2-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Sporting Cristal(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cienciano(home) | 5-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | UCV Moquegua(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Alianza Lima(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Atletico Grau(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | ADT(home) | 2-0 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 FBC Melgar win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Sport Boys win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2026 | Sport Boys 1-3 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Sport Boys 1-0 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| Jun 14, 2025 | FBC Melgar 2-1 Sport Boys | Primera División |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Sport Boys 0-2 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
| May 5, 2024 | FBC Melgar 2-1 Sport Boys | Primera División |
| Jul 31, 2023 | Sport Boys 0-2 FBC Melgar | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Sport Boys vs FBC Melgar on Apr 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FBC Melgar score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Sport Boys score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBC Melgar | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Sport Boys | 1.4 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FBC Melgar sit 5th in Primera División (28 points from 17 matches) and Sport Boys sit 11th (20 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sport Boys | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | FBC Melgar | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 40 | 27 | 39 |
| 5 | Sport Boys | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 20 | 28 |
| 5 | FBC Melgar | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | FBC Melgar | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 9 | Sport Boys | 23 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 25 | 23 | 31 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 20 |
| 11 | Sport Boys | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 19 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys?
- The Footlab model makes FBC Melgar the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Sport Boys.
- Where and when is FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys played?
- FBC Melgar vs Sport Boys is played on September 19, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín, in the Primera División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Sporting CristalvsAtletico Grau
- Sep 19, 2026Alianza LimavsADT
- Sep 19, 2026Sport HuancayovsUTC Cajamarca
- Sep 19, 2026Alianza AtleticovsComerciantes Unidos
- Sep 19, 2026CiencianovsClub Deportivo Los Chankas
- Sep 19, 2026Deportivo GarcilasovsUniversitario
- Sep 19, 2026Juan Pablo II CollegevsUCV Moquegua
- Sep 19, 2026FC CajamarcavsCusco