Where and when is Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima played?

Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima is played on September 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Cota, in the Primera A.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima: prediction and stats

Primera AClausura - 12Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Cota, Cota

Fortaleza FC

Deportes Tolima

The Footlab model makes Fortaleza FC the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Deportes Tolima. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima?

Deportes Tolima starts as the favourite with a 126-point Elo edge (1,813 vs 1,687).

Fortaleza FC win35 %

Draw31 %

Deportes Tolima win34 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fortaleza FC have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Deportes Tolima have 7, 2 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Fortaleza FC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Cucuta(home)	2-0	Primera A
Aug 4, 2026	Llaneros(away)	1-3	Primera A
Aug 1, 2026	Deportivo Pereira(home)	0-0	Primera A
Jul 26, 2026	Alianza Valledupar(away)	1-1	Primera A
May 29, 2026	Cucuta(away)	0-0	Copa Colombia

Deportes Tolima
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Bucaramanga(home)	0-0	Primera A
Aug 19, 2026	Independiente del Valle(home)	0-1	CONMEBOL Libertadores
Aug 8, 2026	Internacional de Bogota(home)	2-1	Primera A
Aug 4, 2026	Independiente Medellin(home)	2-3	Primera A
Aug 1, 2026	Alianza Valledupar(away)	2-1	Primera A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Fortaleza FC win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Deportes Tolima win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 19, 2026	Deportes Tolima 2-0 Fortaleza FC	Primera A
Dec 8, 2025	Deportes Tolima 1-0 Fortaleza FC	Primera A
Nov 18, 2025	Fortaleza FC 0-1 Deportes Tolima	Primera A
Aug 31, 2025	Deportes Tolima 1-1 Fortaleza FC	Primera A
Mar 15, 2025	Fortaleza FC 1-1 Deportes Tolima	Primera A
Jul 20, 2024	Fortaleza FC 1-1 Deportes Tolima	Primera A

Last archived meeting: Deportes Tolima vs Fortaleza FC on Mar 19, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Fortaleza FC score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Deportes Tolima score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Fortaleza FC	1.2	1.1	4	9/15	6/15
Deportes Tolima	1.2	1.1	5	7/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Fortaleza FC sit 15th in Primera A (22 points from 19 matches) and Deportes Tolima sit 6th (31 points from 19 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Deportes Tolima	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
3	Deportes Tolima	23	10	7	6	31	21	37
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27	17	31
11	Fortaleza FC	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22	27	22
15	Fortaleza FC	19	5	7	7	22	27	22

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima?: The Footlab model makes Fortaleza FC the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Deportes Tolima.
Where and when is Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima played?: Fortaleza FC vs Deportes Tolima is played on September 27, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Cota, in the Primera A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.