Where and when is Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia played?

Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia is played on May 22, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at City Light Stadium, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 36Kick-off on May 22, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)City Light Stadium, Okayama

Fagiano Okayama

Machida Zelvia

The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Fagiano Okayama. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia?

Machida Zelvia starts as the favourite with a 178-point Elo edge (2,116 vs 1,938).

Fagiano Okayama win32 %

Draw28 %

Machida Zelvia win40 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fagiano Okayama have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Machida Zelvia have 9, 5 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Fagiano Okayama
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Beluga Rosso Iwami(home)	3-0	Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026	Tokyo Verdy(home)	0-0	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki(home)	1-0	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(away)	1-2	J1 League
Jul 25, 2026	FC Schalke 04(away)	1-3	Friendlies Clubs

Machida Zelvia
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Grulla Morioka(home)	3-0	Emperor Cup
Aug 23, 2026	Urawa(home)	3-1	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	JEF United Chiba(away)	4-0	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	5-1	J1 League
Jul 18, 2026	Fujieda MYFC(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Fagiano Okayama win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Machida Zelvia win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Sep 27, 2025	Machida Zelvia 1-0 Fagiano Okayama	J1 League
May 25, 2025	Fagiano Okayama 2-2 Machida Zelvia	J1 League
Aug 5, 2023	Fagiano Okayama 1-3 Machida Zelvia	J2 League
May 7, 2023	Machida Zelvia 1-1 Fagiano Okayama	J2 League
Sep 4, 2022	Fagiano Okayama 2-0 Machida Zelvia	J2 League
Mar 13, 2022	Machida Zelvia 3-1 Fagiano Okayama	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Machida Zelvia vs Fagiano Okayama on Sep 27, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Fagiano Okayama score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Machida Zelvia score 2.0 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Fagiano Okayama	1.4	1.0	7	7/15	7/15
Machida Zelvia	2.0	0.7	6	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Fagiano Okayama sit 9th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Machida Zelvia sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Machida Zelvia	3	3	0	0	12	2	9
9	Fagiano Okayama	3	1	1	1	2	2	4

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia?: The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Fagiano Okayama.
Where and when is Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia played?: Fagiano Okayama vs Machida Zelvia is played on May 22, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at City Light Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.