Where and when is Tokyo Verdy vs V-varen Nagasaki played?

Tokyo Verdy vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on May 22, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Tokyo Verdy vs V-varen Nagasaki: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 36Kick-off on May 22, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu

Tokyo Verdy

V-varen Nagasaki

The Footlab model makes V-varen Nagasaki the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Tokyo Verdy. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Tokyo Verdy vs V-varen Nagasaki?

A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Tokyo Verdy (1,872) and V-varen Nagasaki (1,910).

Tokyo Verdy win36 %

Draw27 %

V-varen Nagasaki win37 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tokyo Verdy have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; V-varen Nagasaki have 6, 2 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Tokyo Verdy
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Thespakusatsu Gunma(home)	4-1	Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-0	J1 League
Aug 14, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(home)	1-3	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kawasaki Frontale(home)	1-1	J1 League
Jun 6, 2026	Gamba Osaka(home)	2-4	J1 League

V-varen Nagasaki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	3-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 21, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	2-4	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(home)	2-1	J1 League
Jul 17, 2026	Utrecht(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Tokyo Verdy win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 V-varen Nagasaki win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 5, 2023	Tokyo Verdy 1-2 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
May 7, 2023	V-varen Nagasaki 1-2 Tokyo Verdy	J2 League
Aug 6, 2022	Tokyo Verdy 1-0 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
Feb 19, 2022	V-varen Nagasaki 1-1 Tokyo Verdy	J2 League
Nov 7, 2021	Tokyo Verdy 0-3 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
Apr 25, 2021	V-varen Nagasaki 1-1 Tokyo Verdy	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Tokyo Verdy vs V-varen Nagasaki on Jul 5, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

Tokyo Verdy score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; V-varen Nagasaki score 1.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Tokyo Verdy	1.1	1.4	5	8/15	6/15
V-varen Nagasaki	1.4	1.6	2	10/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Tokyo Verdy sit 17th in J1 League (2 points from 3 matches) and V-varen Nagasaki sit 16th (3 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
16	V-varen Nagasaki	3	1	0	2	4	6	3
17	Tokyo Verdy	3	0	2	1	2	4	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Tokyo Verdy vs V-varen Nagasaki?: The Footlab model makes V-varen Nagasaki the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Tokyo Verdy.
Where and when is Tokyo Verdy vs V-varen Nagasaki played?: Tokyo Verdy vs V-varen Nagasaki is played on May 22, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.