FC Tokyo vs Gamba Osaka: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 36Kick-off on May 22, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu
The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Gamba Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Tokyo vs Gamba Osaka?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate FC Tokyo (2,003) and Gamba Osaka (2,024).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Tokyo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Gamba Osaka have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Parceiro Nagano(home) | 6-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gangwon FC(away) | 1-0 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 4-3 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC Tokyo win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Gamba Osaka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2025 | Gamba Osaka 2-0 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Apr 25, 2025 | FC Tokyo 3-0 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2024 | Gamba Osaka 0-0 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| May 26, 2024 | FC Tokyo 0-1 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| Oct 1, 2023 | FC Tokyo 3-0 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| Jun 11, 2023 | Gamba Osaka 3-1 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Gamba Osaka vs FC Tokyo on Jun 22, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
FC Tokyo score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Gamba Osaka score 1.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Gamba Osaka | 1.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Tokyo sit 11th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Gamba Osaka sit 10th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gamba Osaka | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Tokyo vs Gamba Osaka?
- The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Gamba Osaka.
- Where and when is FC Tokyo vs Gamba Osaka played?
- FC Tokyo vs Gamba Osaka is played on May 22, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- May 22, 2027Sanfrecce HiroshimavsKashiwa Reysol
- May 22, 2027UrawavsKyoto Sanga
- May 22, 2027Kawasaki FrontalevsCerezo Osaka
- May 22, 2027Yokohama F. MarinosvsShimizu S-pulse
- May 22, 2027JEF United ChibavsVissel Kobe
- May 22, 2027Mito HollyhockvsNagoya Grampus
- May 22, 2027Tokyo VerdyvsV-varen Nagasaki
- May 22, 2027Fagiano OkayamavsMachida Zelvia