Match

FC Tokyo vs Gamba Osaka: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 36Kick-off on May 22, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu

FC TokyoGamba Osaka

The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Gamba Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC Tokyo vs Gamba Osaka?

A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate FC Tokyo (2,003) and Gamba Osaka (2,024).

FC Tokyo win42 %
Draw26 %
Gamba Osaka win32 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Tokyo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Gamba Osaka have 8, 3 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC Tokyo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 26, 2026Parceiro Nagano(home)6-0Emperor Cup
Aug 21, 2026JEF United Chiba(home)2-0J1 League
Aug 15, 2026Vissel Kobe(away)2-2J1 League
Aug 8, 2026Machida Zelvia(home)1-5J1 League
Aug 1, 2026Borussia Dortmund(home)0-1Friendlies Clubs
Gamba Osaka
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 26, 2026Biwako Shiga(home)2-0Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026Nagoya Grampus(away)1-3J1 League
Aug 15, 2026Mito Hollyhock(away)1-1J1 League
Aug 11, 2026Gangwon FC(away)1-0AFC Champions League Elite
Aug 7, 2026Urawa(home)4-3J1 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC Tokyo win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Gamba Osaka win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Jun 22, 2025Gamba Osaka 2-0 FC TokyoJ1 League
Apr 25, 2025FC Tokyo 3-0 Gamba OsakaJ1 League
Aug 7, 2024Gamba Osaka 0-0 FC TokyoJ1 League
May 26, 2024FC Tokyo 0-1 Gamba OsakaJ1 League
Oct 1, 2023FC Tokyo 3-0 Gamba OsakaJ1 League
Jun 11, 2023Gamba Osaka 3-1 FC TokyoJ1 League

Last archived meeting: Gamba Osaka vs FC Tokyo on Jun 22, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

FC Tokyo score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Gamba Osaka score 1.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FC Tokyo1.91.548/1510/15
Gamba Osaka1.81.258/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC Tokyo sit 11th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Gamba Osaka sit 10th (4 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
10Gamba Osaka3111674
11FC Tokyo3111574

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC Tokyo vs Gamba Osaka?
The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Gamba Osaka.
Where and when is FC Tokyo vs Gamba Osaka played?
FC Tokyo vs Gamba Osaka is played on May 22, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: FC Tokyo and Gamba Osaka

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