Where and when is FC St. Pauli vs Hertha BSC played?

FC St. Pauli vs Hertha BSC is played on December 19, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Millerntor-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FC St. Pauli vs Hertha BSC: prediction and stats

2. BundesligaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

FC St. Pauli

Hertha BSC

The Footlab model makes Hertha BSC the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for FC St. Pauli. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC St. Pauli vs Hertha BSC?

A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate FC St. Pauli (1,962) and Hertha BSC (2,044).

FC St. Pauli win35 %

Draw26 %

Hertha BSC win39 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC St. Pauli have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Hertha BSC have 6, 4 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC St. Pauli
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(away)	0-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 14, 2026	Holstein Kiel(away)	2-2	2. Bundesliga
Aug 9, 2026	SpVgg Greuther Fürth(home)	1-1	2. Bundesliga
Aug 1, 2026	Deportivo La Coruna(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 24, 2026	Bournemouth(away)	1-4	Friendlies Clubs

Hertha BSC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	FC Saarbrücken(away)	1-1	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	1. FC Heidenheim(home)	4-1	2. Bundesliga
Aug 7, 2026	VfL Bochum(away)	1-0	2. Bundesliga
Jul 31, 2026	1. FC Köln(away)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 21, 2026	Mamelodi Sundowns(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC St. Pauli win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Hertha BSC win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 19, 2025	Hertha BSC 0-0 FC St. Pauli	Friendlies Clubs
Mar 10, 2024	FC St. Pauli 2-0 Hertha BSC	2. Bundesliga
Sep 30, 2023	Hertha BSC 1-2 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
Jul 17, 2021	FC St. Pauli 2-2 Hertha BSC	Friendlies Clubs
Oct 25, 2016	FC St. Pauli 0-2 Hertha BSC	DFB Pokal
Apr 28, 2013	FC St. Pauli 2-3 Hertha BSC	2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Hertha BSC vs FC St. Pauli on Mar 19, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

FC St. Pauli score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Hertha BSC score 2.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FC St. Pauli	1.3	2.0	0	12/15	10/15
Hertha BSC	2.8	1.3	3	9/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC St. Pauli sit 13th in 2. Bundesliga (2 points from 2 matches) and Hertha BSC sit 2nd (6 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Hertha BSC	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
13	FC St. Pauli	2	0	2	0	3	3	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC St. Pauli vs Hertha BSC?: The Footlab model makes Hertha BSC the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for FC St. Pauli.
Where and when is FC St. Pauli vs Hertha BSC played?: FC St. Pauli vs Hertha BSC is played on December 19, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Millerntor-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.