Match

FC St. Pauli vs Hertha BSC: prediction and stats

2. BundesligaRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

FC St. PauliHertha BSC

The Footlab AI model makes Hertha BSC the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for FC St. Pauli. The most likely score is 1-1. If Hertha BSC wins, the most likely score is 1-2.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,864 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC St. Pauli vs Hertha BSC?

Hertha BSC starts as the favourite with a 110-point Elo edge (2,129 vs 2,019).

31%26%43%
FC St. Pauli winDrawHertha BSC win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FC St. Pauli vs Hertha BSC

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FC St. Pauli

3-4-2-1
  1. 9Abdoulie Ceesay
  1. 20M. Rasmussen
  2. 11A. Pyrka
  3. 23L. Oppie
  4. 16J. Fujita
  5. 7Y. Niang
  6. 24C. Metcalfe
  1. 4D. Nemeth
  2. 8E. Smith
  3. 21L. Ritzka
  1. 1B. Voll

Hertha BSC

4-2-3-1
  1. 17S. Grønning
  1. 7J. Brekalo
  2. 8K. Sessa
  3. 30P. Seguin
  4. 23J. Þorsteinsson
  5. 19O. Adewumi
  1. 27N. Kolbe
  2. 2J. Eitschberger
  3. 44L. Gechter
  4. 42D. Zeefuik
  1. 35M. Gersbeck

Computed on October 20, 2026 at 05:51 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC St. Pauli have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Hertha BSC have 9, 5 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC St. Pauli
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026Hannover 96(away)1-12. Bundesliga
Oct 11, 2026Karlsruher SC(home)2-02. Bundesliga
Oct 3, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach(home)1-1Friendlies Clubs
Sep 20, 2026Energie Cottbus(away)1-12. Bundesliga
Sep 12, 2026VfL Wolfsburg(home)1-02. Bundesliga
Hertha BSC
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 16, 2026Holstein Kiel(away)0-02. Bundesliga
Oct 11, 2026SpVgg Greuther Fürth(home)2-12. Bundesliga
Oct 2, 2026FC Augsburg(away)2-2Friendlies Clubs
Sep 29, 2026Hertha Zehlendorf(away)3-1Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026Dynamo Dresden(away)2-12. Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC St. Pauli wins, 2 draws, 2 Hertha BSC wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 19, 2025Hertha BSC 0-0 FC St. PauliFriendlies Clubs
Mar 10, 2024FC St. Pauli 2-0 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga
Sep 30, 2023Hertha BSC 1-2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Jul 17, 2021FC St. Pauli 2-2 Hertha BSCFriendlies Clubs
Oct 25, 2016FC St. Pauli 0-2 Hertha BSCDFB Pokal
Apr 28, 2013FC St. Pauli 2-3 Hertha BSC2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Hertha BSC vs FC St. Pauli on Mar 19, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

FC St. Pauli score 1.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Hertha BSC score 2.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FC St. Pauli1.61.4212/158/15
Hertha BSC2.21.3213/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC St. Pauli sit 7th in 2. Bundesliga (11 points from 8 matches) and Hertha BSC sit 1st (22 points from 8 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Hertha BSC871019822
7FC St. Pauli825111911

A question about FC St. Pauli vs Hertha BSC?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC St. Pauli vs Hertha BSC?
The Footlab AI model makes Hertha BSC the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for FC St. Pauli.
Where and when is FC St. Pauli vs Hertha BSC played?
FC St. Pauli vs Hertha BSC is played on December 19, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Millerntor-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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