Where and when is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg played?

FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg is played on September 12, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Millerntor-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg: prediction and stats

2. BundesligaRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

FC St. Pauli

VfL Wolfsburg

The Footlab model makes VfL Wolfsburg the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for FC St. Pauli. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?

A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate FC St. Pauli (1,967) and VfL Wolfsburg (2,025).

FC St. Pauli win34 %

Draw26 %

VfL Wolfsburg win40 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC St. Pauli have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; VfL Wolfsburg have 6, 4 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC St. Pauli
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(away)	0-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 14, 2026	Holstein Kiel(away)	2-2	2. Bundesliga
Aug 9, 2026	SpVgg Greuther Fürth(home)	1-1	2. Bundesliga
Aug 1, 2026	Deportivo La Coruna(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 24, 2026	Bournemouth(away)	1-4	Friendlies Clubs

VfL Wolfsburg
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 16, 2026	Hannover 96(away)	1-0	2. Bundesliga
Aug 8, 2026	1. FC Kaiserslautern(home)	0-0	2. Bundesliga
Jul 31, 2026	Telstar(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 24, 2026	Lyon(home)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Verl(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 FC St. Pauli win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 VfL Wolfsburg win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 16, 2026	FC St. Pauli 1-3 VfL Wolfsburg	Bundesliga
Jan 14, 2026	VfL Wolfsburg 2-1 FC St. Pauli	Bundesliga
Mar 8, 2025	VfL Wolfsburg 1-1 FC St. Pauli	Bundesliga
Oct 26, 2024	FC St. Pauli 0-0 VfL Wolfsburg	Bundesliga
Apr 16, 2011	VfL Wolfsburg 2-2 FC St. Pauli	Bundesliga
Nov 21, 2010	FC St. Pauli 1-1 VfL Wolfsburg	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg on May 16, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FC St. Pauli score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; VfL Wolfsburg score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FC St. Pauli	1.3	2.0	0	12/15	10/15
VfL Wolfsburg	1.7	1.3	5	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC St. Pauli sit 13th in 2. Bundesliga (2 points from 2 matches) and VfL Wolfsburg sit 4th (4 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	VfL Wolfsburg	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
13	FC St. Pauli	2	0	2	0	3	3	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg?: The Footlab model makes VfL Wolfsburg the favourite at 40%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for FC St. Pauli.
Where and when is FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg played?: FC St. Pauli vs VfL Wolfsburg is played on September 12, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Millerntor-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.