FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu
The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Cerezo Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate FC Tokyo (2,003) and Cerezo Osaka (2,019).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Tokyo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Cerezo Osaka have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Parceiro Nagano(home) | 6-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | FC Gifu(home) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 FC Tokyo win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Cerezo Osaka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | FC Tokyo 1-3 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| May 30, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka 2-2 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Aug 6, 2025 | FC Tokyo 2-1 Cerezo Osaka | Emperor Cup |
| Jun 14, 2025 | FC Tokyo 2-2 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Cerezo Osaka 1-1 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Dec 8, 2024 | FC Tokyo 3-0 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka on Jun 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Tokyo score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Cerezo Osaka score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Cerezo Osaka | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Tokyo sit 11th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Cerezo Osaka sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka?
- The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Cerezo Osaka.
- Where and when is FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka played?
- FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka is played on March 13, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 13, 2027Kashiwa ReysolvsFagiano Okayama
- Mar 13, 2027Vissel KobevsShimizu S-pulse
- Mar 13, 2027KashimavsSanfrecce Hiroshima
- Mar 13, 2027Gamba OsakavsV-varen Nagasaki
- Mar 13, 2027Yokohama F. MarinosvsAvispa Fukuoka
- Mar 13, 2027Kyoto SangavsKawasaki Frontale
- Mar 13, 2027Machida ZelviavsNagoya Grampus
- Mar 13, 2027Tokyo VerdyvsMito Hollyhock