Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 26Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Machida Gion Stadium, Tokyo
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Nagoya Grampus. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus?
Machida Zelvia starts as the favourite with a 162-point Elo edge (2,116 vs 1,953).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machida Zelvia have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Nagoya Grampus have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Grulla Morioka(home) | 3-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Gainare Tottori(home) | 1-3 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Consadole Sapporo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Machida Zelvia win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Nagoya Grampus win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Machida Zelvia 2-1 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| May 30, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus 2-2 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 3-1 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Mar 2, 2025 | Nagoya Grampus 1-2 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Jul 6, 2024 | Machida Zelvia 1-0 Nagoya Grampus | J1 League |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Nagoya Grampus 0-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus on Jun 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Machida Zelvia score 2.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Nagoya Grampus score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 2.0 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Nagoya Grampus | 1.5 | 1.8 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Machida Zelvia sit 1st in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Nagoya Grampus sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Nagoya Grampus | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus?
- The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Nagoya Grampus.
- Where and when is Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus played?
- Machida Zelvia vs Nagoya Grampus is played on March 13, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Machida Gion Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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