Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Yodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka
The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 37% for Cerezo Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Cerezo Osaka (2,019) and FC Tokyo (2,003).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cerezo Osaka have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; FC Tokyo have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | FC Gifu(home) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Parceiro Nagano(home) | 6-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Cerezo Osaka win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 FC Tokyo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | FC Tokyo 1-3 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| May 30, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka 2-2 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Aug 6, 2025 | FC Tokyo 2-1 Cerezo Osaka | Emperor Cup |
| Jun 14, 2025 | FC Tokyo 2-2 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Cerezo Osaka 1-1 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Dec 8, 2024 | FC Tokyo 3-0 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: FC Tokyo vs Cerezo Osaka on Jun 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Cerezo Osaka score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; FC Tokyo score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| FC Tokyo | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cerezo Osaka sit 6th in J1 League (6 points from 3 matches) and FC Tokyo sit 11th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo?
- The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 37% for Cerezo Osaka.
- Where and when is Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo played?
- Cerezo Osaka vs FC Tokyo is played on November 21, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Yodoko Sakura Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 21, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsJEF United Chiba
- Nov 21, 2026Sanfrecce HiroshimavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Nov 21, 2026Vissel KobevsMito Hollyhock
- Nov 21, 2026KashimavsShimizu S-pulse
- Nov 21, 2026Gamba OsakavsFagiano Okayama
- Nov 21, 2026Kawasaki FrontalevsAvispa Fukuoka
- Nov 21, 2026Kyoto SangavsUrawa
- Nov 21, 2026Machida ZelviavsV-varen Nagasaki