FC Tokyo vs Kawasaki Frontale: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 4, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu
The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Kawasaki Frontale. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Tokyo vs Kawasaki Frontale?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate FC Tokyo (2,001) and Kawasaki Frontale (1,959).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Tokyo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Kawasaki Frontale have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(home) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Vanraure Hachinohe(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 FC Tokyo win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Kawasaki Frontale win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 2, 2026 | FC Tokyo 2-0 Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale 1-2 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Kawasaki Frontale 0-1 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Mar 29, 2025 | FC Tokyo 0-3 Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League |
| Aug 11, 2024 | FC Tokyo 0-3 Kawasaki Frontale | J1 League |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Kawasaki Frontale 3-0 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: FC Tokyo vs Kawasaki Frontale on May 2, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Tokyo score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Kawasaki Frontale score 0.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Kawasaki Frontale | 0.9 | 1.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Tokyo sit 11th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Kawasaki Frontale sit 14th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 14 | Kawasaki Frontale | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Tokyo vs Kawasaki Frontale?
- The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Kawasaki Frontale.
- Where and when is FC Tokyo vs Kawasaki Frontale played?
- FC Tokyo vs Kawasaki Frontale is played on December 4, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 5, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsAvispa Fukuoka
- Dec 5, 2026Sanfrecce HiroshimavsVissel Kobe
- Dec 5, 2026V-varen NagasakivsShimizu S-pulse
- Dec 5, 2026UrawavsNagoya Grampus
- Dec 5, 2026Cerezo OsakavsMito Hollyhock
- Dec 5, 2026Gamba OsakavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Dec 5, 2026JEF United ChibavsKashima
- Dec 5, 2026Machida ZelviavsFagiano Okayama