Where and when is V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse played?

V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse is played on December 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, Nagasaki

V-varen Nagasaki

Shimizu S-pulse

The Footlab model makes V-varen Nagasaki the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Shimizu S-pulse. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse?

A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate V-varen Nagasaki (1,910) and Shimizu S-pulse (1,901).

V-varen Nagasaki win41 %

Draw27 %

Shimizu S-pulse win32 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, V-varen Nagasaki have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Shimizu S-pulse have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

V-varen Nagasaki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	3-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 21, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	2-4	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(home)	2-1	J1 League
Jul 17, 2026	Utrecht(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

Shimizu S-pulse
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Osaka(home)	2-1	Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(away)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Yokohama F. Marinos(home)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 8, 2026	Nagoya Grampus(away)	1-0	J1 League
Jul 18, 2026	Karlsruher SC(away)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 V-varen Nagasaki win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Shimizu S-pulse win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 29, 2026	Shimizu S-pulse 1-2 V-varen Nagasaki	J1 League
Apr 5, 2026	V-varen Nagasaki 0-3 Shimizu S-pulse	J1 League
Sep 7, 2024	Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
Mar 10, 2024	V-varen Nagasaki 4-1 Shimizu S-pulse	J2 League
Jul 1, 2023	Shimizu S-pulse 3-2 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
Mar 4, 2023	V-varen Nagasaki 1-1 Shimizu S-pulse	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Shimizu S-pulse vs V-varen Nagasaki on Apr 29, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

V-varen Nagasaki score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Shimizu S-pulse score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
V-varen Nagasaki	1.4	1.6	2	10/15	9/15
Shimizu S-pulse	0.9	1.3	1	9/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

V-varen Nagasaki sit 16th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Shimizu S-pulse sit 15th (3 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
15	Shimizu S-pulse	3	1	0	2	1	2	3
16	V-varen Nagasaki	3	1	0	2	4	6	3

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse?: The Footlab model makes V-varen Nagasaki the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Shimizu S-pulse.
Where and when is V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse played?: V-varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-pulse is played on December 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.