Machida Zelvia vs Fagiano Okayama: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Machida Gion Stadium, Tokyo
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Fagiano Okayama. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Fagiano Okayama?
Machida Zelvia starts as the favourite with a 178-point Elo edge (2,116 vs 1,938).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machida Zelvia have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Fagiano Okayama have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Grulla Morioka(home) | 3-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Beluga Rosso Iwami(home) | 3-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(home) | 0-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Machida Zelvia win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Fagiano Okayama win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 27, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 1-0 Fagiano Okayama | J1 League |
| May 25, 2025 | Fagiano Okayama 2-2 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Fagiano Okayama 1-3 Machida Zelvia | J2 League |
| May 7, 2023 | Machida Zelvia 1-1 Fagiano Okayama | J2 League |
| Sep 4, 2022 | Fagiano Okayama 2-0 Machida Zelvia | J2 League |
| Mar 13, 2022 | Machida Zelvia 3-1 Fagiano Okayama | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Machida Zelvia vs Fagiano Okayama on Sep 27, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Machida Zelvia score 2.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fagiano Okayama score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 2.0 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Fagiano Okayama | 1.4 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Machida Zelvia sit 1st in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Fagiano Okayama sit 9th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Machida Zelvia vs Fagiano Okayama?
- The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 52%, against 26% for a draw and 22% for Fagiano Okayama.
- Where and when is Machida Zelvia vs Fagiano Okayama played?
- Machida Zelvia vs Fagiano Okayama is played on December 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Machida Gion Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 4, 2026FC TokyovsKawasaki Frontale
- Dec 5, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsAvispa Fukuoka
- Dec 5, 2026Sanfrecce HiroshimavsVissel Kobe
- Dec 5, 2026V-varen NagasakivsShimizu S-pulse
- Dec 5, 2026UrawavsNagoya Grampus
- Dec 5, 2026Cerezo OsakavsMito Hollyhock
- Dec 5, 2026Gamba OsakavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Dec 5, 2026JEF United ChibavsKashima