Fluminense vs Mirassol: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 36Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab AI model makes Fluminense the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Mirassol. The most likely score is 1-1. If Fluminense wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fluminense vs Mirassol?
On Elo ratings, Fluminense has 1,889 points and Mirassol 1,815.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fluminense vs Mirassol
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fluminense
4-2-3-1- 7Hulk
- 8Martinelli
- 17A. Canobbio
- 16Nonato
- 32L. Acosta
- 30Y. Soteldo
- 29J. Millán
- 13Guilherme Arana
- 2Samuel Xavier
- 3Thiago Silva
- 1Fábio
Mirassol
4-2-3-1- 30Bruno Santos
- 27Denilson
- 10Chico
- 33Eduardo
- 77Alesson
- 19Gustavo Silva
- 3Willian Machado
- 6Reinaldo
- 32Igor Formiga
- 34João Victor
- 22Walter
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 09:38 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fluminense have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Mirassol have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Flamengo(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Coritiba(home) | 4-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 3-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Platense(away) | 1-2 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Bahia(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 7, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Uberlandia(away) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Botafogo(home) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Vitoria(home) | 2-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Fluminense win, 0 draws, 2 Mirassol wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Mirassol 1-0 Fluminense | Serie A |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Fluminense 1-0 Mirassol | Serie A |
| Oct 9, 2025 | Mirassol 2-1 Fluminense | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Mirassol vs Fluminense on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fluminense score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Mirassol score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | 1.5 | 1.2 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Mirassol | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fluminense sit 4th in Serie A (51 points from 30 matches) and Mirassol sit 15th (33 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 37 | 51 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 34 | 44 | 33 |
A question about Fluminense vs Mirassol?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fluminense vs Mirassol?
- The Footlab AI model makes Fluminense the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Mirassol.
- Where and when is Fluminense vs Mirassol played?
- Fluminense vs Mirassol is played on November 22, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.