Botafogo vs Sao Paulo: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 36Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Botafogo the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Sao Paulo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Botafogo vs Sao Paulo?
A very open match: only 11 Elo points separate Botafogo (1,952) and Sao Paulo (1,941).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Botafogo have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Sao Paulo have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cienciano(home) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cienciano(away) | 1-6 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bolívar(home) | 3-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Coritiba(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Bolívar(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gremio(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Botafogo win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Sao Paulo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Sao Paulo 1-1 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Sao Paulo 1-0 Botafogo | Serie A |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Botafogo 2-2 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Botafogo 2-1 Sao Paulo | Serie A |
| Sep 26, 2024 | Sao Paulo 1-1 Botafogo | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Sep 19, 2024 | Botafogo 0-0 Sao Paulo | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
Last archived meeting: Sao Paulo vs Botafogo on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Botafogo score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sao Paulo score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Sao Paulo | 1.1 | 1.3 | 2 | 11/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Botafogo sit 11th in Serie A (30 points from 22 matches) and Sao Paulo sit 13th (27 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 35 | 34 | 30 |
| 13 | Sao Paulo | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 26 | 27 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Botafogo vs Sao Paulo?
- The Footlab model makes Botafogo the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for Sao Paulo.
- Where and when is Botafogo vs Sao Paulo played?
- Botafogo vs Sao Paulo is played on November 22, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Nilton Santos, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.