Palmeiras vs Flamengo: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 36Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Allianz Parque, São Paulo, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Flamengo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Palmeiras (2,122) and Flamengo (2,121).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Palmeiras have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Flamengo have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 4-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Cerro Porteno(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 2-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Cerro Porteno(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Internacional(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 2-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Mirassol(away) | 5-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vitoria(home) | 2-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Palmeiras win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Flamengo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Flamengo 0-3 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Palmeiras 0-1 Flamengo | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Flamengo 3-2 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| May 25, 2025 | Palmeiras 0-2 Flamengo | Serie A |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Flamengo 1-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Aug 7, 2024 | Palmeiras 1-0 Flamengo | Copa Do Brasil |
Last archived meeting: Flamengo vs Palmeiras on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Palmeiras score 2.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Flamengo score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 2.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Flamengo | 1.9 | 1.0 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Palmeiras sit 1st in Serie A (51 points from 24 matches) and Flamengo sit 2nd (45 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 51 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
- The Footlab model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 37%, against 27% for a draw and 36% for Flamengo.
- Where and when is Palmeiras vs Flamengo played?
- Palmeiras vs Flamengo is played on November 22, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Allianz Parque, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.