Palmeiras vs Flamengo: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 36Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Allianz Parque, São Paulo, São Paulo
The Footlab AI model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Flamengo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Palmeiras wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 4,564 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Palmeiras (1,975) and Flamengo (2,021).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Palmeiras vs Flamengo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Palmeiras
3-4-2-1- 42J. López
- 30Lucas Evangelista
- 11J. Arias
- 4A. Giay
- 17Marlon Freitas
- 22J. Piquerez
- 8Andreas Pereira
- 2A. Barboza
- 15G. Gómez
- 26Murilo
- 1Carlos Miguel
Flamengo
4-2-3-1- 9Pedro
- 5E. Pulgar
- 16Samuel Lino
- 21Jorginho
- 10G. de Arrascaeta
- 15J. Carrascal
- 4Léo Pereira
- 3Léo Ortiz
- 2G. Varela
- 22Emerson Royal
- 1A. Rossi
Computed on November 5, 2026 at 12:20 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Palmeiras have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Flamengo have 11, 4 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 1-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Santos(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Oct 24, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 2026 | Gremio(home) | 3-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 29, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(away) | 4-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 26, 2026 | Atletico-MG(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 23, 2026 | Estudiantes L.P.(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Bahia(away) | 3-0 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Palmeiras wins, 1 draw, 3 Flamengo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Flamengo 0-3 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Palmeiras 0-1 Flamengo | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Flamengo 3-2 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| May 25, 2025 | Palmeiras 0-2 Flamengo | Serie A |
| Aug 11, 2024 | Flamengo 1-1 Palmeiras | Serie A |
| Aug 7, 2024 | Palmeiras 1-0 Flamengo | Copa Do Brasil |
Last archived meeting: Flamengo vs Palmeiras on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Palmeiras score 1.2 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Flamengo score 1.9 and concede 0.6. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras | 1.2 | 0.5 | 10 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Flamengo | 1.9 | 0.6 | 8 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Palmeiras sit 2nd in Serie A (70 points from 33 matches) and Flamengo sit 1st (76 points from 34 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71 | 29 | 76 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 33 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 56 | 22 | 70 |
A question about Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Palmeiras vs Flamengo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Flamengo.
- Where and when is Palmeiras vs Flamengo played?
- Palmeiras vs Flamengo is played on November 22, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Allianz Parque, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.