Bahia vs Coritiba: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 36Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Bahia
The Footlab AI model makes Bahia the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Coritiba. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bahia vs Coritiba?
On Elo ratings, Bahia has 1,864 points and Coritiba 1,765.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bahia vs Coritiba
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bahia
4-3-3- 9A. Véliz
- 16Erick Pulga
- 99C. Olivera
- 11Rodrigo Nestor
- 6Jean Lucas
- 5N. Acevedo
- 46Luciano Juba
- 33David Duarte
- 44Marcos Victor
- 4Kanu
- 1Ronaldo
Coritiba
4-2-3-1- 32Pedro Rocha
- 19S. Gómez
- 21Thiago Santos
- 10Josué
- 7J. Lavega
- 77Breno Lopes
- 55Jacy
- 23Tiago Cóser
- 14F. Bustos
- 6Felipe Jonatan
- 1Pedro Luccas
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 09:38 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bahia have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Coritiba have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Palmeiras(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Remo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 5, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Botafogo(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 0-4 | Serie A |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(away) | 0-5 | Serie A |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(home) | 3-3 | Serie A |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 1-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bahia wins, 1 draw, 1 Coritiba win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | Coritiba 3-2 Bahia | Serie A |
| Sep 14, 2023 | Coritiba 2-4 Bahia | Serie A |
| May 7, 2023 | Bahia 3-1 Coritiba | Serie A |
| Nov 16, 2020 | Coritiba 1-2 Bahia | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2020 | Bahia 1-0 Coritiba | Serie A |
| Sep 30, 2017 | Bahia 1-1 Coritiba | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Bahia score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Coritiba score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Coritiba | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bahia sit 5th in Serie A (49 points from 30 matches) and Coritiba sit 11th (39 points from 30 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | 44 | 36 | 49 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 38 | 48 | 39 |
A question about Bahia vs Coritiba?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bahia vs Coritiba?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bahia the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Coritiba.
- Where and when is Bahia vs Coritiba played?
- Bahia vs Coritiba is played on November 22, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Fonte Nova, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.