Gabon vs Lesotho: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)TBC (Morocco), TBC
The Footlab AI model makes Gabon the favourite at 67%, against 22% for a draw and 11% for Lesotho. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gabon vs Lesotho?
Gabon starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (1,530 vs 1,366).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Gabon vs Lesotho
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Gabon
4-4-2- 10S. Babicka
- 20E. Matouti
- 22D. Ndong
- 12G. Kanga
- 20D. Bouanga
- 17A. Biyogo Poko
- 6U. Mboula
- 19J. Ekomié
- 21J. Oyono
- 4A. Moucketou-Moussounda
- 1J. Amonome
Lesotho
5-4-1- 9M. Sera
- 11Neo Mokhachane
- 7T. Letsema
- 20T. Makhele
- 10Lehlohonolo Fothoane
- 20T. Makhele
- 21R. Mokokoane
- 2Motlomelo Mkwanazi
- 17Thabang Malane
- 13F. Matlabe
- 16S. Moerane
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:10 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gabon have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Lesotho have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Niger(home) | 2-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Morocco(away) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Trinidad and Tobago(away) | 2-2 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Uzbekistan(away) | 1-3 | FIFA Series |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Ivory Coast(home) | 2-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Morocco(home) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Niger(away) | 1-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Kenya(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Kenya(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Seychelles(home) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Gabon win, 1 draw, 0 Lesotho wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2024 | Lesotho 0-2 Gabon | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Gabon 0-0 Lesotho | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Gabon score 1.8 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lesotho score 0.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabon | 1.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Lesotho | 0.5 | 1.8 | 4 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gabon sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (3 points from 2 matches) and Lesotho sit 4th (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gabon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Lesotho | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
A question about Gabon vs Lesotho?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gabon vs Lesotho?
- The Footlab AI model makes Gabon the favourite at 67%, against 22% for a draw and 11% for Lesotho.
- Where and when is Gabon vs Lesotho played?
- Gabon vs Lesotho is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at TBC (Morocco), in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.