Lesotho vs Gabon: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Setsoto Stadium, Maseru
The Footlab model makes Gabon the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Lesotho. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lesotho vs Gabon?
Gabon starts as the favourite with a 148-point Elo edge (1,522 vs 1,373).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lesotho have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Gabon have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Kenya(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Kenya(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Seychelles(home) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Seychelles(away) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Malawi(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Trinidad and Tobago(away) | 2-2 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Uzbekistan(away) | 1-3 | FIFA Series |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Ivory Coast(home) | 2-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Mozambique(home) | 2-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 24, 2025 | Cameroon(away) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Lesotho win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Gabon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2024 | Lesotho 0-2 Gabon | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Gabon 0-0 Lesotho | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Lesotho score 0.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Gabon score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lesotho | 0.5 | 1.6 | 5 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Gabon | 1.9 | 1.6 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lesotho sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (4 points from 6 matches) and Gabon sit 2nd (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gabon | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 10 |
| 3 | Lesotho | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lesotho vs Gabon?
- The Footlab model makes Gabon the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Lesotho.
- Where and when is Lesotho vs Gabon played?
- Lesotho vs Gabon is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Setsoto Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.