Lesotho vs Gabon: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 4Kick-off on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Setsoto Stadium, Maseru
The Footlab AI model makes Gabon the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Lesotho. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lesotho vs Gabon?
Gabon starts as the favourite with a 164-point Elo edge (1,530 vs 1,366).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lesotho vs Gabon
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lesotho
5-4-1- 9M. Sera
- 11Neo Mokhachane
- 7T. Letsema
- 20T. Makhele
- 10Lehlohonolo Fothoane
- 20T. Makhele
- 21R. Mokokoane
- 2Motlomelo Mkwanazi
- 17Thabang Malane
- 13F. Matlabe
- 16S. Moerane
Gabon
4-4-2- 10S. Babicka
- 20E. Matouti
- 22D. Ndong
- 12G. Kanga
- 20D. Bouanga
- 17A. Biyogo Poko
- 6U. Mboula
- 19J. Ekomié
- 21J. Oyono
- 4A. Moucketou-Moussounda
- 1J. Amonome
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 03:12 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lesotho have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Gabon have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Morocco(home) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Niger(away) | 1-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Kenya(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Kenya(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Seychelles(home) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Niger(home) | 2-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Morocco(away) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Trinidad and Tobago(away) | 2-2 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Uzbekistan(away) | 1-3 | FIFA Series |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Ivory Coast(home) | 2-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Lesotho wins, 1 draw, 1 Gabon win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2024 | Lesotho 0-2 Gabon | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Gabon 0-0 Lesotho | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Lesotho score 0.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Gabon score 1.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lesotho | 0.5 | 1.8 | 4 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
| Gabon | 1.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lesotho sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (0 points from 2 matches) and Gabon sit 2nd (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gabon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Lesotho | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
A question about Lesotho vs Gabon?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lesotho vs Gabon?
- The Footlab AI model makes Gabon the favourite at 53%, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Lesotho.
- Where and when is Lesotho vs Gabon played?
- Lesotho vs Gabon is played on November 15, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Setsoto Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.