Gamba Osaka vs FC Tokyo: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Panasonic Stadium Suita, Suita
The Footlab model makes Gamba Osaka the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for FC Tokyo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gamba Osaka vs FC Tokyo?
A very open match: only 21 Elo points separate Gamba Osaka (2,022) and FC Tokyo (2,001).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gamba Osaka have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; FC Tokyo have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mito Hollyhock(away) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Gangwon FC(away) | 1-0 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 4-3 | J1 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Red Bull Salzburg(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Gamba Osaka win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 FC Tokyo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 22, 2025 | Gamba Osaka 2-0 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Apr 25, 2025 | FC Tokyo 3-0 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2024 | Gamba Osaka 0-0 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| May 26, 2024 | FC Tokyo 0-1 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| Oct 1, 2023 | FC Tokyo 3-0 Gamba Osaka | J1 League |
| Jun 11, 2023 | Gamba Osaka 3-1 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Gamba Osaka vs FC Tokyo on Jun 22, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Gamba Osaka score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; FC Tokyo score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gamba Osaka | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| FC Tokyo | 1.7 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gamba Osaka sit 10th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and FC Tokyo sit 11th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Gamba Osaka | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gamba Osaka vs FC Tokyo?
- The Footlab model makes Gamba Osaka the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for FC Tokyo.
- Where and when is Gamba Osaka vs FC Tokyo played?
- Gamba Osaka vs FC Tokyo is played on September 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Panasonic Stadium Suita, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 12, 2026Sanfrecce HiroshimavsCerezo Osaka
- Sep 12, 2026Shimizu S-pulsevsAvispa Fukuoka
- Sep 12, 2026V-varen NagasakivsNagoya Grampus
- Sep 12, 2026UrawavsFagiano Okayama
- Sep 12, 2026Vissel KobevsKashima
- Sep 12, 2026Kyoto SangavsKashiwa Reysol
- Sep 12, 2026Machida ZelviavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Sep 12, 2026Mito HollyhockvsKawasaki Frontale