Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 7Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Machida Gion Stadium, Tokyo
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Yokohama F. Marinos. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
Machida Zelvia starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (2,116 vs 1,976).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Machida Zelvia have 9 wins, 5 draws and 1 defeats; Yokohama F. Marinos have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Grulla Morioka(home) | 3-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Fukushima United(home) | 1-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(away) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Kashima(home) | 3-4 | J1 League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Machida Zelvia win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Yokohama F. Marinos win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Machida Zelvia 2-0 Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos 2-3 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Yokohama F. Marinos 0-0 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| May 31, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 0-3 Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
| Jul 20, 2024 | Machida Zelvia 1-2 Yokohama F. Marinos | J1 League |
| Jun 15, 2024 | Yokohama F. Marinos 1-3 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos on May 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Machida Zelvia score 2.0 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Yokohama F. Marinos score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machida Zelvia | 2.0 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Yokohama F. Marinos | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Machida Zelvia sit 1st in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Yokohama F. Marinos sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos?
- The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 50%, against 27% for a draw and 23% for Yokohama F. Marinos.
- Where and when is Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos played?
- Machida Zelvia vs Yokohama F. Marinos is played on September 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Machida Gion Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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