Germany U17 vs Lithuania U17: prediction and stats
UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 1Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)DFB-Campus, Frankfurt am Main
The Footlab model makes Germany U17 the favourite at 72%, against 16% for a draw and 12% for Lithuania U17. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Germany U17 vs Lithuania U17?
Germany U17 is a heavy favourite: 1,716 Elo points against 1,404 — a 312-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Germany U17 have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Lithuania U17 have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | France U17(away) | 0-2 | UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Slovenia U17(home) | 1-1 | UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 25, 2026 | North Macedonia U17(home) | 2-1 | UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Portugal U17(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Feb 15, 2026 | Spain U17(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Bulgaria U17(home) | 0-3 | UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Azerbaijan U17(home) | 0-0 | UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 24, 2026 | Malta U17(away) | 3-1 | UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 3, 2025 | Scotland U17(away) | 1-4 | UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 31, 2025 | England U17(away) | 1-0 | UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Germany U17 score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Lithuania U17 score 1.6 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 75% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany U17 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Lithuania U17 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Germany U17 sit 1st in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification (6 points from 2 matches) and Lithuania U17 sit 2nd (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany U17 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Lithuania U17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Germany U17 vs Lithuania U17?
- The Footlab model makes Germany U17 the favourite at 72%, against 16% for a draw and 12% for Lithuania U17.
- Where and when is Germany U17 vs Lithuania U17 played?
- Germany U17 vs Lithuania U17 is played on November 14, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at DFB-Campus, in the UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 75% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 23, 2026Iceland U17vsGibraltar U17
- Sep 23, 2026Bosnia-Herzegovina U17vsGreece U17
- Sep 26, 2026Greece U17vsGibraltar U17
- Sep 26, 2026Iceland U17vsBosnia-Herzegovina U17
- Sep 29, 2026Gibraltar U17vsBosnia-Herzegovina U17
- Sep 29, 2026Greece U17vsIceland U17
- Oct 12, 2026Israel U17vsSwitzerland U17
- Oct 12, 2026Spain U17vsLiechtenstein U17