Where and when is Gernika vs Arosa played?

Gernika vs Arosa is played on February 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Urbieta, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Gernika vs Arosa: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 21Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Urbieta, Gernika-Lumo

Gernika

Arosa

The Footlab model makes Gernika the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Arosa. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Gernika vs Arosa?

A very open match: only 67 Elo points separate Gernika (1,837) and Arosa (1,904).

Gernika win36 %

Draw28 %

Arosa win36 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gernika have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Arosa have 10, 4 and 1.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Gernika
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Deportivo Alavés II(home)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 26, 2026	Basconia(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 18, 2026	Tudelano(home)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 11, 2026	Amorebieta(away)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 4, 2026	Utebo(home)	0-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

Arosa
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 1, 2026	Pontevedra(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 10, 2026	Celtiga(home)	3-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
May 2, 2026	Cambados(away)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Boiro(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 19, 2026	Barco(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 1

How many goals should we expect?

Gernika score 1.0 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Arosa score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Gernika	1.0	1.5	5	7/15	6/15
Arosa	1.7	0.8	7	7/15	5/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Gernika vs Arosa?: The Footlab model makes Gernika the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Arosa.
Where and when is Gernika vs Arosa played?: Gernika vs Arosa is played on February 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Urbieta, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.