Gernika vs Arosa: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 21Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Urbieta, Gernika-Lumo
The Footlab AI model makes Gernika the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Arosa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Gernika wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,460 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gernika vs Arosa?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Gernika (1,883) and Arosa (1,873).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Gernika vs Arosa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Gernika
Not enough data to predict the Gernika lineup.
Arosa
Not enough data to predict the Arosa lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gernika have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Arosa have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés II(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sestao River(home) | 1-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Coruxo(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Llanera(home) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arosa(away) | 4-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Bergantiños(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Ourense CF(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés II(home) | 2-5 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Basconia(away) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Gernika(home) | 0-4 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Gernika win, 0 draws, 0 Arosa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Arosa 0-4 Gernika | Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Gernika score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Arosa score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gernika | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Arosa | 1.4 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gernika sit 8th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (9 points from 6 matches) and Arosa sit 17th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gernika | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 6 | 9 |
| 17 | Arosa | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 15 | 4 |
A question about Gernika vs Arosa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gernika vs Arosa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Gernika the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Arosa.
- Where and when is Gernika vs Arosa played?
- Gernika vs Arosa is played on February 6, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Urbieta, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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- Feb 6, 2027Ourense CFvsCompostela
- Feb 6, 2027Racing Santander IIvsLlanera
- Feb 6, 2027Real Madrid IIIvsSestao River