Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski, Białystok
The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Gornik Zabrze. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Jagiellonia (2,057) and Gornik Zabrze (2,037).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jagiellonia have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Gornik Zabrze have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Saburtalo(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Widzew Łódź(home) | 0-2 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Rangers(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Motor Lublin(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Monaco(home) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Wisla Krakow(home) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(away) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Ferencvarosi TC(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Jagiellonia win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Gornik Zabrze win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | Jagiellonia 1-2 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| May 4, 2025 | Jagiellonia 1-1 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Gornik Zabrze 0-2 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Jagiellonia | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 27, 2023 | Jagiellonia 4-1 Gornik Zabrze | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze on Apr 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Jagiellonia score 1.7 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Gornik Zabrze score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia | 1.7 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Gornik Zabrze | 1.6 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jagiellonia sit 10th in Ekstraklasa (6 points from 3 matches) and Gornik Zabrze sit 2nd (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze?
- The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Gornik Zabrze.
- Where and when is Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze played?
- Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze is played on October 10, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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